IMPACTOS CAUSADOS PELO EL NIÑO A AGRICULTURA E NA PECUÁRIA BRASILEIRA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61164/rmnm.v2i1.2148Palavras-chave:
Impacto; El Niño; Pecuária; AgriculturaResumo
O presente Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso tem como tema central os impactos causados pelo fenômeno El Niño à agricultura e pecuária brasileira. O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar o conceito do fenômeno El Niño, a forma como ele ocorre e os danos que ele tem causado ao setor agrícola e pecuário do Brasil.
Este estudo é relevante dada a importância do agronegócio para a economia brasileira, que pode ser seriamente afetada por variações climáticas. Em especial, o fenômeno El Niño, que periodicamente provoca alterações significativas no clima global e tem consequências diretas para a agricultura e pecuária.
A pergunta de pesquisa que norteia este trabalho é: "O que é o El Niño, como ele ocorre e quais os danos que ele está causando à agricultura e pecuária brasileira? E qual será o impacto deste fenômeno na economia do país?". Através de uma revisão bibliográfica, busca-se compreender melhor esse fenômeno e avaliar seus impactos no Brasil.
Os resultados esperados para este estudo são uma melhor compreensão dos mecanismos envolvidos no fenômeno El Niño, bem como uma avaliação dos seus impactos nas atividades agrícolas e pecuárias brasileiras. Espera-se também fornecer subsídios para políticas públicas voltadas à mitigação dos danos causados por este fenômeno climático
Referências
FAO. (2018). The impact of disasters and crises on agriculture and food security. FAO. MARENGO J. A., ALVES L.M., ALVALÁ R.C.S., CUNHA A.P., BRITO S., MORAES O.V.L. (2013). Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 90(2), 1973-1985. NOAA. (2020). What is El Niño?. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
:
Ropelewski, C. F., & Halpert, M. S. (1987). Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review, 115(8), 1606–1626.
Silva, V. P. R., De Campos, J. N., De Azevedo, P. V., & Silva, B. B. (2014). Impact of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation on irrigated agriculture in northeastern Brazil. Journal of water and health, 12(2), 350-359.
Souza Jr., I.F., Lorenzzetti, J.A., Rezende Costa, C.B., Tozzi H.H., Andrade Coutinho A.C.(2015). Impacts of the Enso Modoki on the South American Rainfall during 1979–2001. Advances in Meteorology.
: 1. Ropelewski, C. F., & Halpert, M. S. (1987). Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly weather review, 115(8), 1606-1626. 2. Grimm, A.M., Ferraz, S.E.T., & Gomes, J. (1998). Precipitation anomalies in Southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate, 11(11), 2863-2880. 3. Coelho, C.A.S., Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita M.S. (2016). Precipitation diagnostics of an exceptionally dry event in São Paulo, Brazil. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 125(1-2),195-211. 4. Silva R.G., Morais D.A.E.F., Guilhermino M.M.(2018). Impact of climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems.Livestock Science 217, 89-101.
CUNHA, D. A. P.; BRUNINI, O.; KABUKI, D. Y.; GALLO, P. B.; SENTELHAS, P. C. Impacto do fenômeno El Niño na agricultura brasileira: uma revisão bibliográfica. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental - Agriambi, v. 23, n. 5, p. 361–370, 2019.
MARENGO J.A.; TORRES R.R.; ALVES L.M. Climate Change in the South America in the Late XX and Early XXI Centuries: Temperature and Precipitation Scenarios for South America in the High Emissions Scenario RCP8.5 of CMIP5 models. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 33, n.1, p. 88-105, 2018.
PEZZOPANE, J.R.M.; PEZZOPANE, J.E.M.; BERNARDI, A.C.C.; BOSI, C.; SANTOS, P.M. Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre as pastagens e a pecuária de corte no Brasil. Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste-Artigo em periódico indexado (ALICE), p.1–18, 2019.
SILVA V.P.R.; AMORIM M.C.C.T.; HERNANDEZ F.B.T., AZEVEDO P.V., SOARES J.M.. Effects of climate change and adaptation of animal production within the farming systems in the Northeast of Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 707,p.135582, 2020.
:
Assis, F.N., Mota, M.M., Gomes, J.B.V., & Silva Junior, C.A. (2018). Impactos do fenômeno El Niño na agricultura brasileira: uma revisão. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, 23, 230-253.
Marengo, J.A., Torres, R.R., & Alves, L.M. (2018). Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 129(3-4), 1189-1200.
Silva, V.P.R., Cavalcanti, E.P., Braga, C.C., & Silva, B.B. (2020). Impactos das mudanças climáticas na pecuária leiteira no Nordeste do Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, 24(1), 1-7.
Rosa, R., Reissig Menezes G.M., Panizzi A.R., & Ferraz Costa V.A. (2019). Pragas da soja no Brasil e seu manejo integrado. Embrapa Soja-Livro científico (ALICE).
:
Grimm, A. M., Ferraz, S. E. T., & Gomes, J. (1998). Precipitation anomalies in Southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate, 11(11), 2863-2880.
Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Alvala, R., Cunha, A. P., Brito, S., & Moraes, O. (2018). Climatic characteristics of the 2010–2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 90(2), 1973-1985.
Nicholls, N. (2009). Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958–2007. Climate dynamics, 34(6), 835-845.
Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert M.S.(1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115:1606–1626.
:
Carvalho, J. L. N., et al. (2020). Impact of El Niño phenomenon in the dynamics of diseases and pests in agricultural systems. Agronomy Science and Biotechnology, 2(1), 1-8.
Ferreira, D., et al. (2017). Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the variability of soybean yield in Brazil. Ciência Rural, 47(5).
Magrin, G., et al. (2019). Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. IPCC Special Report. Marengo, J., et al. (2018). Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: Current and future variability and trends. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6(228), 1-22. Pereira, A., et al (2016). Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis. PLoS ONE 11(5): e0156054.
:
Assad, E.D., Pinto, H.S., Zullo Jr, J., & Ávila, A.M.H. (2004). Impacto das mudanças climáticas no zoneamento agroclimático do café no Brasil. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, 39(11), 1057-1064.
Coelho, C.A.S., Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S., Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custódio MdeS & Dutra L.M.M. (2016). The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Climate Dynamics, 46(11-12), 3737–3752.
farming systems in the Northeast of Brazil. Science of The Total Environment, v. 707,p.135582, 2020.
:
Assis, F.N., Mota, M.M., Gomes, J.B.V., & Silva Junior, C.A. (2018). Impactos do fenômeno El Niño na agricultura brasileira: uma revisão. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, 23, 230-253.
Marengo, J.A., Torres, R.R., & Alves, L.M. (2018). Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 129(3-4), 1189-1200.
Silva, V.P.R., Cavalcanti, E.P., Braga, C.C., & Silva, B.B. (2020). Impactos das mudanças climáticas na pecuária leiteira no Nordeste do Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental, 24(1), 1-7.
Rosa, R., Reissig Menezes G.M., Panizzi A.R., & Ferraz Costa V.A. (2019). Pragas da soja no Brasil e seu manejo integrado. Embrapa Soja-Livro científico (ALICE).
:
Grimm, A. M., Ferraz, S. E. T., & Gomes, J. (1998). Precipitation anomalies in Southern Brazil associated with El Niño and La Niña events. Journal of Climate, 11(11), 2863-2880.
Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Alvala, R., Cunha, A. P., Brito, S., & Moraes, O. (2018). Climatic characteristics of the 2010–2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 90(2), 1973-1985.
Nicholls, N. (2009). Local and remote causes of the southern Australian autumn-winter rainfall decline, 1958–2007. Climate dynamics, 34(6), 835-845.
Ropelewski, C.F., Halpert M.S.(1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 115:1606–1626.
:
Carvalho, J. L. N., et al. (2020). Impact of El Niño phenomenon in the dynamics of diseases and pests in agricultural systems. Agronomy Science and Biotechnology, 2(1), 1-8.
Ferreira, D., et al. (2017). Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the variability of soybean yield in Brazil. Ciência Rural, 47(5).
Magrin, G., et al. (2019). Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. IPCC Special Report. Marengo, J., et al. (2018). Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: Current and future variability and trends. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6(228), 1-22. Pereira, A., et al (2016). Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis. PLoS ONE 11(5): e0156054.
:
Assad, E.D., Pinto, H.S., Zullo Jr, J., & Ávila, A.M.H. (2004). Impacto das mudanças climáticas no zoneamento agroclimático do café no Brasil. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, 39(11), 1057-1064.
Coelho, C.A.S., Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S., Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custódio MdeS & Dutra L.M.M. (2016). The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Climate Dynamics, 46(11-12), 3737–3752.
Grimm A.M. (2003). The El Niño impact on the summer monsoon in Brazil: regional processes versus remote influences. Journal of Climate 16(2):263-280.
Marengo, J.A., Torres, R.R., & Alves, L.M. (2018). Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 129(3-4), 1189-1200.
Silva, V.P.R., De Azevedo P.V., Silva B.B., De Araújo L.E. & Gusmão L.A.C. (2018). Climate changes and potential impacts on water resources in the semiarid region of NE Brazil. In: Leal Filho W., Nalau J. (eds) Limits to Climate Change Adaptation. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham.
Araújo, V.P.C., Paludo G.R., Davi C.L.F., Herling V.R. & Pereira L.E.T (2017). Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the forage quantity and quality in the Brazilian Southeastern Region: Implications to beef cattle production systems. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia 10:366-373.
:
Silva, V. P. R., Santos, C. A., Lyra, G. B., Oliveira, M., & Cavalcanti, I. F. (2019). Impact of El Niño on Brazilian Agriculture. Journal of Climate Change and Sustainability, 1(1), 35-50.
Santos, M., Ferreira, W., & Oliveira, L. (2020). The effects of El Niño on Brazilian livestock: An analysis of the beef and milk sectors. Brazilian Journal of Animal Science, 49(3), e20190133.
Oliveira, R., Coelho, A., & Costa, S. (2018). Positive impacts of El Niño on agriculture in southern Brazil: a case study in rice and bean production. Agronomy Journal, 110(5), 1852-1860.
Zanetti, L., Silva, F., & Souza, P.(2019). Mitigation strategies for impacts of the El Niño phenomenon in Brazilian agriculture: an analysis based on literature review. Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation - EMBRAPA Cerrados.
:
Coelho, C. A., Oliveira, C.P., Ambrizzi, T., Reboita, M.S., Carpenedo, C.B., Campos, J.L.P.S.F., Tomaziello, A.C.N., Pampuch, L.A., Custodio, M.D.S., Dutra, L.M.M. & Molion, L.C.B. (2016). The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. Climate Dynamics 46(11-12), 3737–3752.
Marengo J.A., Alves L.M., Beserra E.A., Lacerda F.F.(2018). Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 57(10), 2401–2414.
Pires G.F., Abrahão G.M.S.S.B.R , Brumatti L.M (2015). Effects of climate change on beef production in Brazil: impacts on livestock diseases and economic losses. Journal of Agricultural Science 7(12), p181.
Rodrigues, H.S., Medeiros, J.F., Oliveira, M.T., & Conde, C.M.T.E. (2017). Effects of El Niño on sum rainfall, rain intensity and the number of rainy days in the rainy season in the main agroclimatic zones of Brazil. Journal of Agricultural Science 9(10), 135-148.
:
Marengo, J. A., Torres, R. R., & Alves, L. M. (2016). Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 129(3-4), 1189-1200.
Silva, V. D. P. R., De Campos, J.N.B., De Oliveira-Júnior, J.F., Teodoro, P.E., Cunha-e-Silva-Costa-Cândido-Nascimento-Silva-..., & Pinto H.M.S.(2018). Global warming and the possible globalization of vector-borne diseases: a call for increased awareness and action. Ticks Tick Borne Dis 9(5): 1202–1210.
Coelho,C.A.S., Oliveira C.P.W.F.D., Ambrizzi T.& Reboita M.S.(2016). Climate diagnostics of three major drought events in the Amazon and illustrations of their seasonal precipitation predictions.. Meteorol Appl 23(3): 344–355.
Barros,K.V.D.B.R., Campos J.N.B.& Silva A.C.P.(2017). Impacts of the Natural Climate Variability on Agricultural Areas in Brazil: An Analysis from the Agricultural Climate Zoning.. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia Vol32(2): pp225–233.
Magrin, G. O., Marengo, J. A., Boulanger, J. P., Buckeridge, M. S., Castellanos, E., Poveda, G., ... & Vicuña, S. (2018). Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: current and future variability and trends. Frontiers in Earth Science, 6, 228.
Silva, V. de P. R., Santos, C. A. C., Lyra, R.F.de.(2019). Impacts of the ENSO on the Brazilian Agriculture: Analysis of Impacts on the Agricultural Sector and Economic Losses. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Costa,L.C., Guimarães,D.P., Lopes,P.R.C.(2020). The Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Cattle Production in Brazil: A Critical Review International Journal of Biometeorology.
Ferreira,I.N.S.B., Rodrigues,L.A.A.G.(2021). The Role of Public Policies in Adapting to Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Insurance in Brazil International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
:
Smith, P., et al., "Impacts of El Niño on Agriculture and Food Security in the Americas: A Case Study in Brazil", Journal of Climate Change, 2012.
Oliveira, G., "Impactos do El Niño na Pecuária Brasileira: Uma Análise Econômica", Revista de Economia e Agronegócio, 2015.
Silva, J., et al., "El Niño e a Agricultura no Brasil: Implicações para Políticas Públicas", Revista Brasileira de Ciências Ambientais, 2014.
Santos, M., "O Fenômeno El Niño e seus Efeitos na Produção Agrícola e Pecuária: Um Estudo de Caso no Brasil", Dissertação de Mestrado, Universidade Federal do Paraná, 2010.
:
Silva, V. P. R., De Azevedo, P. V., De Araújo, L. E., & De Assis Figueiredo, F. A. M. M. (2017). El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the Brazilian agricultural productivity: an analysis of the main crops' responses. Agricultural Water Management, 182, 196-204.
Rodrigues, W. N., Da Silva Júnior, C. A., Alves Da Silva, G., & Dos Santos Soares Filho, W. (2019). Impact of climate change on pest populations and public health in the tropics: a case study in Brazil with two insect vectors in different ecosystems. Science of The Total Environment, 676, 621-631.
Souza Jr., I.F., Rocha E.J.P., & Ferreira N.J.(2018). Impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water resources in northeastern Brazil: challenges and possibilities for adaptation to climate change from an analysis of system dynamics modeling.Energy Procedia ,146 ,130–135.
Carvalho L.G.M., Costa M.H., Soares-Filho B.S.(2020). Expansion of center pivot irrigation in the Brazilian Cerrado: increased agricultural production and intensity of land use.Agricultural Water Management, 240, 106265.
Downloads
Publicado
Como Citar
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2024 Revista Multidisciplinar do Nordeste Mineiro
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
