Non-homogeneous Poisson Process with polynomial function rate to predict road accidents: A case study in Albania

Authors

  • Denisa Kaçorri (Salillari) Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA
  • Albina Basholli Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA
  • Luela Prifti Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59287/as-proceedings.194

Keywords:

Poisson Process, Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process, Intensity Function, Accidents

Abstract

Poisson process finds a wide range of applications in modelling various natural phenomena as well as in modelling road traffic and predicting the number of deaths in road accidents. The importance of predicting accident rates lies in the improvement of road infrastructure and the effective implementation of laws and traffic regulations. This paper aims to predict the number of individuals involved in road accidents in Albania by applying the non-homogeneous Poisson process. In this paper, we estimate the best intensity function of the non-homogeneous Poisson process model for predicting results for the future. The best model resulted in one with a polynomial intensity function.

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Published

2023-11-15

How to Cite

Kaçorri (Salillari), D., Basholli, A., & Prifti, L. (2023). Non-homogeneous Poisson Process with polynomial function rate to predict road accidents: A case study in Albania. AS-Proceedings, 1(2), 446–450. https://doi.org/10.59287/as-proceedings.194

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): Proceeding Book of 2nd International Conference on Contemporary Academic Research ICCAR 2023

Section

Conference Papers