Price Bubble in the Turkish Stock Market during Pre- and Post-Covid: Evidence from the SADF and GSADF Test
Chapter from the book: Buğan, M. F. & Tuna, İ. (eds.) 2023. Evolution of Financial Markets IV.

Hüseyin Özdemir
Atılım University

Synopsis

The study examines the possibility of a stock market price bubble in four sub-sector stock indices (financial, industrial, service, and technology) and the BIST 100 composite index in Turkey by using the monthly data spans from 2000 to 2023. To capture the irrational prosperity in Turkish stock markets, we employ the supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) methodologies. Our primary focus is on the construction of price bubbles, particularly in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Presently, there are ongoing and intense discussions regarding the potential emergence of such bubbles. The conclusion implies the presence of speculative bubbles in all sector-specific stock market indexes, with the exception of the technology index, subsequent to the complete removal of COVID-19 restrictions by the Turkish government. Moreover, the results show that exuberant investor behavior also occurred in some sub-periods other than the post-COVID-19 period for all stock market indices.

How to cite this book

Özdemir, H. (2023). Price Bubble in the Turkish Stock Market during Pre- and Post-Covid: Evidence from the SADF and GSADF Test. In: Buğan, M. F. & Tuna, İ. (eds.), Evolution of Financial Markets IV. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub395.c1722

License

Published

December 30, 2023

DOI