Aims: We attempted to clarify whether the multiple criteria for metabolic syndrome (MetS) can sufficiently predict cardiovascular disease, whether waist circumference (WC) should be required, and whether sex-specific thresholds for each component are necessary. Only a few large-scale studies among East Asians have addressed the ability of MetS to predict cardiovascular disease.

Methods: We analyzed the data of 330,051 men and 235,028 women aged 18–74 years with no history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or cerebrovascular disease (CVD) from a nationwide Japanese claims database accumulated during 2008–2016. The association of each MetS component with CAD or CVD (CAD/CVD), MetS associated with CAD/CVD according to various criteria, and utility of modified criteria with more specific optimal values for each component were examined using multivariate Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: During the study, 3,934 men (1.19%) and 893 women (0.38%) developed CAD/CVD. For each current MetS criteria, there was a 1.3- to 2.9-fold increased risk of CAD/CVD. Optimal thresholds for predicting CAD/CVD were WCs of 83 and 77 cm, triglycerides levels of 130 and 90 mg/dl, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of 50 and 65 mg/dl, blood pressures of 130/80 and 120/80 mmHg, and fasting plasma glucose levels of 100 and 90 mg/dl for men and women, respectively. The existing MetS criteria and modified criteria were not significantly different in predicting CAD/CVD, but using the modified criteria markedly increased the prevalence of MetS and percentage of people with MetS developing CAD/CVD.

Conclusions: Although various criteria for MetS similarly predicted CAD/CVD, the new criteria greatly reduced the number of high-risk individuals, especially women, overlooked by the current criteria.