Productive Population and Czech Economy by 2060

Jaroslav Sixta, Karel Šafr
Statistika, 102(1): 20-34
https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2021.29

Abstract
The paper brings a deeper outlook at the development of productive population by 2060 in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic will be strongly confronted with population ageing and suitable mix of different policies will be needed. The crucial issue is, how much the development of labour productivity as well as technical progress can prevent radical increases in statutory retirement age. Capping this fundamental economic parameter at the age of 65 years will shift economic burden on productive population that will have to respond. We bring a deeper view on the structure of current labour force and its possible development by 2060. This comes from the combination of official demographic projection and computable general equilibrium model based on Leontief input-output principles. We prove that economic sustainability of such parameters is more than uncertain since the estimates of the potential burden incurred by population ageing is significant despite the compensation by the changes in labour productivity and technological growth.

Keywords
Demographic ageing, labour force, productivity, CGE