Football Momentum Analysis based on Logistic Regression

Zilu Wen; Jinyu Liu; Chenxi Liu

doi:10.54097/jbsh1q88

Authors

Zilu Wen
Jinyu Liu
Chenxi Liu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/jbsh1q88

Keywords:

Momentum, Logistic Regression, Model Parameters, Win Probability Prediction, Match Analysis

Abstract

In tennis, momentum is pivotal and can be quantified using metrics like Consecutive Win Rate (CWR), Unforced Error Rate (UER), Break Point Save Rate (BPSR), and Fatigue Factor (FF). Each metric provides insight into a player's performance and state during a match. CWR is a clear momentum indicator, reflecting a player's game dominance, while UER highlights potential lapses in concentration or physical condition. BPSR evaluates a player's clutch performance in critical situations, and FF gauges physical exertion. Utilizing logistic regression, we can predict a player's probability to win at any scoring point, incorporating these metrics as variables. The coefficients obtained from MATLAB analysis (e.g., p1_cwr at 22.73 and p2_ff at -3.26) reveal the positive or negative correlation of these factors with a player's winning chances. In the case of the "2023-wimbledon-1301" match, the logistic model's predictions showed a symmetrical distribution of win probabilities between players, suggesting a balance in momentum swings throughout the match. Initial volatility in Player 1's success rate indicated a strong start, which diminished over time, possibly due to fatigue or the opponent's improving performance. Despite the fluctuations and a period of deadlock, Player 1's consistent performance and superior win rate for most of the game secured the victory. This outcome underscores the importance of maintaining momentum and physical resilience in tennis.

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