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Küreselleşme, Enflasyon ve Para Politikasının Etkinliği

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 2551 - 2578, 30.11.2023

Zeki Akbakay

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1170277

Öz

Enflasyon oranları 1970’lerdeki yükselişinin ardından 1980’lerde düşmeye başlamış ve Covid- 19 pandemisinin hız kestiği 2021 ortalarına kadar düşük düzeyde kalmaya devam etmiştir. Yaşanan bu fiyat istikrarı aynı zamanda küreselleşme olgusunun hızlandığı döneme denk gelmektedir. Bu, küreselleşmenin enflasyon ve para politikasının etkinliği üzerindeki etkisine dair tartışmayı da tetiklemiştir. İktisat teorisi, enflasyon ve para politikası aktarım mekanizmasının küreselleşmeden etkilendiğini savunur. Bu çalışmanın amacı, "küreselleşme parasal bir genişlemenin enflasyonist etkisini ve enflasyon oranlarını nasıl etkiler" sorularına cevap aramaktır. Bu amaçla 39 gelişmekte olan ülkenin 2000-2020 dönemine ait verileri dinamik panel veri yöntemleriyle analiz edilmektedir. Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (GMM) tahmincisinin sonuçlarına göre hem ticari küreselleşme hem de finansal küreselleşmedeki artış enflasyon oranlarının düşmesine neden olmaktadır. Diğer taraftan küreselleşme parasal bir genişlemenin enflasyonist etkisini artırmaktadır. Benzer sonuçlar küreselleşmenin farklı ölçümleri ile yapılan analizlerde de ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre küreselleşme enflasyon dinamiklerini ve para politikası aktarım mekanizmasını etkilemektedir. Bu yüzden merkez bankalarının karar alma süreçlerinde dış faktörleri dikkate almaları gerekir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme enflasyon para politikası sistem GMM gelişmekte olan ülkeler

Kaynakça

  • Andersen, T. G. and Sørensen, B. E. (1996). ‘GMM estimation of a stochastic volatility model: a Monte Carlo study’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 14, pp. 328–352.
  • Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). ‘Another look at the instrumental variables estimation of error components models’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 68, pp. 29–51.
  • Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). ‘Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, pp. 277–297.
  • Baffes, J., Kabundi, A., Nagle, P. & Ohnsorge, F. (2018). The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8495
  • Ball L.M. (2006), “Has Globalization Changed Inflation?”, NBER Working Paper no. 12687.
  • Bean, C (2006). Globalisation and inflation. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2006 Q4, pp468-475.
  • Bernanke BS (2004): The Great Moderation, Speech at the Meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington
  • Berument, H. & Doˇgan, B. (2003). Openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy: empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 10:217–221.
  • Berument, H., Konac, N., & Senay, O. (2007). Openness and the effectiveness of openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy: a cross-country analysis. International Economic Journal, 21(4):577–591.
  • Bianchi F, Civelli A (2015): Globalization and inflation: Structural evidence from a time varying VAR approach, Review of Economic Dynamics 18, 406-433
  • Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). ‘Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 87, pp. 115–143.
  • Borio C. & A. Filardo (2007), “Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation”, Bank for International Settlements Working Paper No. 227.
  • Calza A. (2008), “Globalisation, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area”, ECB Working Paper No. 890
  • Ciccarelli, M. & Mojon, B. (2010). “Global inflation” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 92, Number 3. Cooke, D.(2010). Openness and inflation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , March-April 2010, Vol. 42, No. 2/3 pp. 267-287 D. Romer, (1993), “Openness and inflation: theory and evidence” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (4): 869–903
  • Dreger, C., Rieth, M., Pothier, D. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?, . European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Ekpo, A.H. Effiong, E.L (2017). Openness and the Effects of Monetary Policy in Africa, MPRA Paper No. 80847,
  • Fiedler, S., Jannsen, N., Reitz, S. Wolters, M. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation? European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Forbes, K.J. (2019). Has globalization changed the inflation process?, BIS Working papers No.791
  • Georgiadis, G., Mehl, A. (2016). Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness, Journal of International Economics 103 (2016) 200–212
  • Gerba, E., &Macchiarelli, C. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inlation?, European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Gnan E. and T. Valderrama (2006). “Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy”, Monetary Policy and the Economy, Quarter 4, ONB, 37-54.
  • Gruben, W.C. & McLeod, D. (2002). Capital account liberalization and inflation, Economics Letters 77 (2002) 221–225
  • Gygly, S., Healg, F., Potrafke, N., and Sturm, J-E. (2019). “The KOF Globalization Index-revisited”, The Review of International Organizations, 14, pp.543–574
  • Hartwell, C. (2016). İs globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflaton? Impacts on prices and wages, European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Heid, B., Langer, J. & Larch, M. (2011). Income and democracy: Evidence from system GMM estimates, Ifo Working Paper No. 118
  • Helbling, Th., F. Jaumotte, M. Sommer (2006). How Has Globalization Affected Inflation? World Economic Outlook 2006, chapter 3.
  • Kamin, S. B. (2010). Financial globalization and monetary policy. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1002). Karras, G. (1999). Openness and the effects of monetary policy, Journal of International Money and Finance 18 (1999) 13 -26 Karras, G. (2001). Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?, Open economies review 12: 61–73
  • Kose, M., E. Prasad, K. Rogoffand S. Wei (2006). “Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal”, IMF Working Paper WP/06/189
  • Labra, R. &Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic Panel data. A practical approach to perform long panels, Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 41(1), pp. 31-52
  • Lane, F.R. (1997). İnflation and open economies, Journal of International Economics 42 (1997) 327–347
  • Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. External Wealth of Nations database (based on Lane, Philip R. and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2018, "The External Wealth of Nations Revisited: International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Economic Review 66, 189-222.
  • Lin,F., Mei, D., Wang, H. & Yao, X. (2017) Romer Was Right on Openness and Inflation: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Applied Economics, 20:1, 121-140,
  • Meier, S. (2013). Financial Globalization and Monetary Transmission, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 145
  • Miles, D., Panizza, U., Reis, R. & Ubide, A. (2017). And Yet It Moves: Inflation and the Great Recession, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 19 . London: Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization, macroeconomic performance, and monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(1), 187-196.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2007). Inflation Dynamics. International Finance 10(3), 317-334.
  • Moutot, P., Vitale, G. (2009). Monetary policy strategy in a global environment, ECB Occasional paper series No. 106
  • Pain, N., I. Koske & M. Sollie (2008). Globalization and OECD Consumer Price Inflation. OECD Economic Studies No. 44, 2008/1
  • Rodrik, D. (2001) “The Developing Countries’ Hazardous Obsession with Global Integration,” Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
  • Rogoff, K. (2003). “Globalization and global disinflation” Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 88, Number 4. Roodman, D. (2009a). A note on the theme of too many ınstruments, Oxford Bulletın Of Economıcs And Statıstıcs, 71 81), 0305-9049, pp.135-158
  • Roodman, D. (2009b). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata, The Stata Journal, 9(19, pp. 86–136
  • Soto, M. (2009). System GMM estimation with a small sample, Barcelona Economics Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 395
  • Stock, J. H. Stock & Watson, M.W. (2003). "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230,
  • Taylor, J.B. (2008). The impacts of globalisation on monetary policy, Banque de France International Symposium: Globalisation, infl ation and monetary policy
  • Tytell, I., & Wei, S-J (2004). Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies? IMF Working Paper 04/84.
  • Windmeijer, F. (2005). ‘A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 126, pp. 25–51.
  • Woodford M (2007): Globalization and monetary control, NBER Working Paper 13329
  • Wynne, M.A., Kersting, E.K.(2007). Openness and inflation, Federal reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers No. 2
  • Yellen, J. L. (2006, May). Monetary policy in a global environment. In remarks at a conference on The Euro and the Dollar in a Globalised Economy, UC Santa Cruz, CA,
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020) İleri Panel veri Analizi, 4. Baskı, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul

Globalization, inflation and The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 2551 - 2578, 30.11.2023

Zeki Akbakay

https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1170277

Öz

After rising in the 1970s, inflation rates began to decline in the 1980s and remained low until mid-2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic decelerated. This price stability also coincides with the period when the phenomenon of globalization accelerated. This has triggered the debate about the impact of globalization on inflation and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Economic theory argues that inflation and monetary policy transmission mechanism are affected by globalization. The aim of this study is to seek answers to the questions of "how does globalization affect the inflationary effect of monetary expansion and inflation rates". For this purpose, the data of 39 developing countries for the period 2000-2020 are analyzed with dynamic panel data methods. According to the results of the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, the increase in both trade globalization and financial globalization causes inflation rates to decrease. On the other hand, globalization increases the inflationary effect of a monetary expansion. In the study, similar results were obtained in the analyzes made with different measures of globalization. According to these results, globalization affects inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission mechanism. Therefore, central banks need to consider external factors in their decision-making processes.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization inflation monetary policy system GMM developing countries

Kaynakça

  • Andersen, T. G. and Sørensen, B. E. (1996). ‘GMM estimation of a stochastic volatility model: a Monte Carlo study’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 14, pp. 328–352.
  • Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). ‘Another look at the instrumental variables estimation of error components models’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 68, pp. 29–51.
  • Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). ‘Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations’, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, pp. 277–297.
  • Baffes, J., Kabundi, A., Nagle, P. & Ohnsorge, F. (2018). The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8495
  • Ball L.M. (2006), “Has Globalization Changed Inflation?”, NBER Working Paper no. 12687.
  • Bean, C (2006). Globalisation and inflation. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2006 Q4, pp468-475.
  • Bernanke BS (2004): The Great Moderation, Speech at the Meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington
  • Berument, H. & Doˇgan, B. (2003). Openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy: empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 10:217–221.
  • Berument, H., Konac, N., & Senay, O. (2007). Openness and the effectiveness of openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy: a cross-country analysis. International Economic Journal, 21(4):577–591.
  • Bianchi F, Civelli A (2015): Globalization and inflation: Structural evidence from a time varying VAR approach, Review of Economic Dynamics 18, 406-433
  • Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). ‘Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 87, pp. 115–143.
  • Borio C. & A. Filardo (2007), “Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation”, Bank for International Settlements Working Paper No. 227.
  • Calza A. (2008), “Globalisation, Domestic Inflation and Global Output Gaps: Evidence from the Euro Area”, ECB Working Paper No. 890
  • Ciccarelli, M. & Mojon, B. (2010). “Global inflation” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Volume 92, Number 3. Cooke, D.(2010). Openness and inflation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , March-April 2010, Vol. 42, No. 2/3 pp. 267-287 D. Romer, (1993), “Openness and inflation: theory and evidence” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (4): 869–903
  • Dreger, C., Rieth, M., Pothier, D. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?, . European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Ekpo, A.H. Effiong, E.L (2017). Openness and the Effects of Monetary Policy in Africa, MPRA Paper No. 80847,
  • Fiedler, S., Jannsen, N., Reitz, S. Wolters, M. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation? European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Forbes, K.J. (2019). Has globalization changed the inflation process?, BIS Working papers No.791
  • Georgiadis, G., Mehl, A. (2016). Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness, Journal of International Economics 103 (2016) 200–212
  • Gerba, E., &Macchiarelli, C. (2016). Is globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inlation?, European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Gnan E. and T. Valderrama (2006). “Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy”, Monetary Policy and the Economy, Quarter 4, ONB, 37-54.
  • Gruben, W.C. & McLeod, D. (2002). Capital account liberalization and inflation, Economics Letters 77 (2002) 221–225
  • Gygly, S., Healg, F., Potrafke, N., and Sturm, J-E. (2019). “The KOF Globalization Index-revisited”, The Review of International Organizations, 14, pp.543–574
  • Hartwell, C. (2016). İs globalization reducing the ability of central banks to control inflaton? Impacts on prices and wages, European Parliament, Policy Department A: Economic and Scientific Policy
  • Heid, B., Langer, J. & Larch, M. (2011). Income and democracy: Evidence from system GMM estimates, Ifo Working Paper No. 118
  • Helbling, Th., F. Jaumotte, M. Sommer (2006). How Has Globalization Affected Inflation? World Economic Outlook 2006, chapter 3.
  • Kamin, S. B. (2010). Financial globalization and monetary policy. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1002). Karras, G. (1999). Openness and the effects of monetary policy, Journal of International Money and Finance 18 (1999) 13 -26 Karras, G. (2001). Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?, Open economies review 12: 61–73
  • Kose, M., E. Prasad, K. Rogoffand S. Wei (2006). “Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal”, IMF Working Paper WP/06/189
  • Labra, R. &Torrecillas, C. (2018). Estimating dynamic Panel data. A practical approach to perform long panels, Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 41(1), pp. 31-52
  • Lane, F.R. (1997). İnflation and open economies, Journal of International Economics 42 (1997) 327–347
  • Lane, P. R. & Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. External Wealth of Nations database (based on Lane, Philip R. and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2018, "The External Wealth of Nations Revisited: International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Economic Review 66, 189-222.
  • Lin,F., Mei, D., Wang, H. & Yao, X. (2017) Romer Was Right on Openness and Inflation: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Applied Economics, 20:1, 121-140,
  • Meier, S. (2013). Financial Globalization and Monetary Transmission, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 145
  • Miles, D., Panizza, U., Reis, R. & Ubide, A. (2017). And Yet It Moves: Inflation and the Great Recession, Geneva Reports on the World Economy 19 . London: Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization, macroeconomic performance, and monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41(1), 187-196.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2007). Inflation Dynamics. International Finance 10(3), 317-334.
  • Moutot, P., Vitale, G. (2009). Monetary policy strategy in a global environment, ECB Occasional paper series No. 106
  • Pain, N., I. Koske & M. Sollie (2008). Globalization and OECD Consumer Price Inflation. OECD Economic Studies No. 44, 2008/1
  • Rodrik, D. (2001) “The Developing Countries’ Hazardous Obsession with Global Integration,” Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
  • Rogoff, K. (2003). “Globalization and global disinflation” Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Volume 88, Number 4. Roodman, D. (2009a). A note on the theme of too many ınstruments, Oxford Bulletın Of Economıcs And Statıstıcs, 71 81), 0305-9049, pp.135-158
  • Roodman, D. (2009b). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata, The Stata Journal, 9(19, pp. 86–136
  • Soto, M. (2009). System GMM estimation with a small sample, Barcelona Economics Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 395
  • Stock, J. H. Stock & Watson, M.W. (2003). "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230,
  • Taylor, J.B. (2008). The impacts of globalisation on monetary policy, Banque de France International Symposium: Globalisation, infl ation and monetary policy
  • Tytell, I., & Wei, S-J (2004). Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies? IMF Working Paper 04/84.
  • Windmeijer, F. (2005). ‘A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 126, pp. 25–51.
  • Woodford M (2007): Globalization and monetary control, NBER Working Paper 13329
  • Wynne, M.A., Kersting, E.K.(2007). Openness and inflation, Federal reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers No. 2
  • Yellen, J. L. (2006, May). Monetary policy in a global environment. In remarks at a conference on The Euro and the Dollar in a Globalised Economy, UC Santa Cruz, CA,
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020) İleri Panel veri Analizi, 4. Baskı, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul
Toplam 50 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALESİ
Yazarlar

Zeki Akbakay 0000-0002-6736-6483

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 27 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Kasım 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 2 Eylül 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Akbakay, Z. (2023). Küreselleşme, Enflasyon ve Para Politikasının Etkinliği. Ordu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(3), 2551-2578. https://doi.org/10.48146/odusobiad.1170277
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