Application of SARIMA Model in Cucumber Price Forecast

Chang Shou Luo; Li Ying Zhou; Qing Feng Wei

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.373-375.1686

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 373-375Application of SARIMA Model in Cucumber Price...

Application of SARIMA Model in Cucumber Price Forecast

Abstract:

The price of vegetables is difficult to predict. In order to find an effective method, this paper fully considers the seasonal variations, and uses the seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average model （SARIMA） to forecast the cucumber price. The experimental results indicate that the SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 fits the cucumber market prices exactly in the previous months. Its average fitting error is 17%. The forecast data of twelve months in 2011 is in line with the actual trend. Its average error reaches 25%. The SARIMA model is feasible for short-term warning of vegetable price.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 373-375)

Pages:

1686-1690

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.373-375.1686

Citation:

Cite this paper

Online since:

August 2013

Authors:

Chang Shou Luo, Li Ying Zhou, Qing Feng Wei

Keywords:

Cucumber, Forecast, SARIMA Model, Time Series

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