Identification and assessment of man-made threats to cities using integrated Grey BWM- Grey MARCOS method

Mahdi Bitarafan; Kambod Amini Hosseini; Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani

doi:10.31181/dmame622023747

Authors

Mahdi Bitarafan International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2814-8704
Kambod Amini Hosseini International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5989-8826
Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani School of Engineering, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Coquimbo, Chile https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2602-3986

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame622023747

Keywords:

Man-made threats, Cities, Grey theory, Infrastructures, Multiple-criteria decision-making, BWM, MARCOS

Abstract

Identifying and evaluating any threat against the critical infrastructures, including history, methods, abilities, and motivations, is essential for crisis management and cities' passive defense. Threats, including natural and unnatural (man-made), are directed at cities' critical assets and infrastructures. Essential assets are considered valuable components, so the slightest malfunction or damage to the body causes damage to the system. This study uses Tehran, the capital of Iran, as a case study to identify and assess man-made dangers to cities and their vital resources. This work creates an innovative integrated MCDM approach that can handle information ambiguity in crisis management. Therefore, at this stage of identifying man-made threats, library methods and interviews with experts were used, and multi-criteria decision-making techniques were implemented. Moreover, this research benefits from the grey Best-Worst method (BWM) to evaluate the research criteria and grey Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) to rank the threats. The research findings indicated that the three main threats to Tehran city are cyber, military, and terrorist attacks. Finally, a sensitivity analysis based on two practical experiments is done, and research results are verified.

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