Panoeconomicus 2013 Volume 60, Issue 4, Pages: 499-513
https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN1304499H
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The Turkish stock market integration with oil prices: Cointegration analysis with unknown regime shifts
Halaç Umut (Yaşar University, Turkey)
Dilvin Taşkın Fatma (Yaşar University, Turkey)
Çağlar Çağlı Efe (Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey)
Oil prices are often considered as a vital economic factor due to the
dependence of the world economy on oil. The goal of this paper is to
contribute to the literature on the dynamic relationship between oil prices
and stock prices under the presence of possible structural breaks in an
emerging market, Turkey. The empirical evidence suggests that the oil prices
are important in explaining the stock market movements. Stock prices, oil
prices and nominal exchange rates are found as cointegrated after taking
structural breaks into account. Moreover, results of parameter stability test
are consistent with our findings indicating that relationship between series
is strong in the long-run. The results are important in the way that they
show the global factors are also dominant on the Turkish stock market.
Keywords: cointegration, oil price, stock market, structural breaks, Turkey