Structural Analysis of Import Oil and Gas in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22219/jep.v21i02.28043Keywords:
VECM, Structural analysis, inflation, international of oil prices, import oil and gasAbstract
As a world crude oil exporter, Indonesia can only meet domestic oil needs of 40% and 60% through imports. The level of imports in the oil and gas sector, which is higher than exports, impacts the trade balance, which can threaten the stability of the domestic economy. This study analyzes oil and gas import policies using time-series data from 2005Q1-2021Q4 using the VECM approach. The study results show that GDP, inflation, world oil prices, and interest rates affect oil and gas imports. Structural analysis shows that inflation and world oil prices are essential in oil and gas import policies. The implications of the research show that apart from political policies, decisions on oil and gas imports must also pay attention to conditions of domestic inflation and international oil prices to stabilize domestic economic conditions.
Downloads
References
Ahad, M., & Dar, A. A. (2018). A dynamic relationship between financial development and import demand for Bangladesh: An evidence from combine cointegration and Granger causality approach. Global Business Review, 19(3), 543–555.
Almaya, U. N., Rianto, W. H., & Hadi, S. (2021). Pengaruh harga minyak dunia, inflasi, konsumsi rumah tangga terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 5(2), 262–278.
Aminarta, A. A., & Kurniawan, M. L. A. (2021). Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators Against the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in Indonesia: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach. Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences, 5(2), 118–131. https://doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v5i2.12267
Andini Adhalia, A, R, R., & Nurjanah, R. (2020). Determinan impor Indonesia. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 8(1), 31–42.
Aziz, M. N., & Bhaban, M. Y. (2012). Modelling of import demand function for a developing country: An empirical approach. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 11(2), 571–586.
Dewayani, M., & Kesumajaya, W. W. (2015). Pengaruh kurs dollar Amerika, konsumsi dan produksi terhadap impor produk olahan susu Indonesia. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(2), 96–104.
Dinata, S. A. W., Purbosari, A. A., & Hasanah, P. (2022). Forecasting Indonesian oil, non-oil and gas import export with fuzzy time series. IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems), 16(4), 389–400.
Eka, G., Safitry, V., & Kristin, Y. (2017). Penentuan Model Terbaik untuk Peramalan Data Saham Closing PT. CIMB Niaga Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Arch-Garch. Jurnal Statistika Dan Aplikasinya, 1(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.21009/jsa.01101
Faini, R., Pritchett, L., Clavijo, F., & Mundial, B. (1988). Import demand in developing countries.
Fajar, M. (2016). Investigasi Empirik Power Uji KPSS. Research Gate, November.
Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since world war II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228–248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
Ji, Q., Geng, J. B., & Fan, Y. (2014). Separated influence of crude oil prices on regional natural gas import prices. Energy Policy, 70, 96–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.03.019
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Kartikasari, D., & Khoirudin, R. (2022). Analisis determinan impor di Indonesia periode 2011-2020. Ecoplan, 5(1), 72–86.
Keblowski, P., & Welfe, A. (2004). The ADF-KPSS test of the joint confirmation hypothesis of unit autoregressive root. Economics Letters, 85(2), 257–263.
Kurniasari, F., & Monica, L. (2019). Pengaruh nilai tukar, suku bunga Indonesia dan produk domestik bruto terhadap volume ekspor impor di Indonesia. Journal of Business & Applied Management, 12(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.32502/jimn.v8i2.1821
Machmud, A. (2016). Dampak depresiasi rupiah terhadap perkembangan impor Indonesia. Quantitative Economics Journal, 5(1), 28–53.
Nisrina, & Widyastutik. (2019). Ekuivalen tarif dan determinan impor jasa telekomunikasi di Negara APEC. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 8(1), 75–83.
Paipan, S., & Abrar, M. (2020). Determinan ketergantungan impor beras di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Publik, 11(1), 53–64.
Panagiotidis, T., & Rutledge, E. (2007). Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach. Energy Economics, 29(2), 329–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.10.013
Paramayuga, A. (2017). Pengaruh inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, PDB dan kurs terhadap impor di Indonesia. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 4(1).
Prakoso, I. B., & Hasmarini, M. I. (2022). Determinan impor barang konsumsi Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 836–840.
Ristanto, M. N. F., & Sarfiah, S. N. (2022). Analisis determinan volume impor kedelai Indonesia menggunakan metode ECM (Error Correction Model) Tahun 1991-2020. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis, Manajemen Dan Akuntansi (Jebma), 2(1), 18–30.
Rusdi. (2011). Uji Akar-Akar Unit dalam Model Runtun Waktu Autoregresif. Satistika, 11(2), 67–78.
Samah, E. A., & Nuryati, Y. (2008). Kinerja perekonomian Indonesia dengan kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia. In Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan.
Saputra, F. D. (2017). Analisis impor Indonesia dari Cina. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 3(1), 16–21.
Sartika, N. R., Amril, A., & Artis, D. (2018). Analisis determinan impor gula Indonesia dari Thailand. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 6(1), 1–13.
Seo, J. Y. (2013). Diversification of crude oil import sources as determinant factors in the pricing of petroleum products. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 8(4), 320–327. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2012.713078
Tang, C. T. (2003). Japanese aggregate import demand function: Reassesment from “Bound” testing approach. Japan and World Economy, 15(4), 419–436.
Yanti, I. R., Hodijah, S., & Nurjanah, R. (2022). Determinan impor bawang merah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Aktual, 2(1), 7–12.
Yovirizka, I. U., & Haryanto, T. (2020). Implikasi kebijakan perdagangan ACFTA pada bawang putih impor di Indonesia: Model permintaan impor. Media Trend Berkala Kajian Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 15(2), 301–307.
Yuce Dural, B., & Jahangir, R. (2017). Relationship Between Terrorism and Macroeconomic Variables: Especially Import of Crude Oil and Natural Gas in Turkey. Ulakbilge Dergisi, 5(14), 1373–1394. https://doi.org/10.7816/ulakbilge-05-14-09
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Naidhisyia Azzahra, Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP) agree to the following terms:
- For all articles published in Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan (JEP), copyright is retained by the authors. Authors permit the publisher to announce the work with conditions. When the manuscript is accepted for publication, the authors agree to the publishing right's automatic transfer to the publisher.
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors can enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) before and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges and earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
