تحلیل زمانی- مکانی ابرناکی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای دانشگاه زنجان

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه زنجان

3 استادیار گروه جغرافیا. دانشگاه زنجان

چکیده

ابرها را می­توان به عنوان یکی از پیچیده­ترین و تأثیرگذارترین متغیرهای دستگاه نیوار در شکل­دهی ساختار اقلیمی کرۀ زمین به شمار آورد. بنابراین، هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی و تحلیل مقدار ابرناکی به لحاظ تغییرات زمانی و مکانی در ایران است که طی یک دورۀ 31 ساله (2021-1991) برای تعداد 93 ایستگاه در پهنۀ ایران به انجام رسیده است. بدین منظور داده­های روزانۀ متغیر ابر از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت گردید و پس از بررسی و پیش­پردازش و تبدیل آنها به مقیاس­های­ سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی، سطح نرمال بودن داده­ها با آزمون­های مختلف آماری از قبیل آزمون­های کولموگروف-اسمیرنوف، لیلیفورس و اندرسون-دارلینگ بررسی شد. سپس براساس توزیع نرمال و غیرنرمال سری­های زمانی ابرناکی جهت تشخیص روند داده­ها از آزمون رگرسیون خطی بر اساس روش کمترین مربعات خطا و آزمون من-کندال در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد استفاده شد. نتایج سالانه نشان داد تعداد 50 ایستگاه دارای تغییرات معنادار بوده­اند که جهت این تغییرات در 47 ایستگاه، کاهشی و تنها در 3 ایستگاه، افزایشی بوده است، در سایر ایستگاه­ها هیچ روند معناداری مشاهده نگردید. نتایج ماهانه و فصلی نیز بیانگر روند کاهشی مقدار ابرناکی در ماه­های سرد سال و فصل­های زمستان و بهار و البته فصل پاییز است. همچنین ارتباط بین عوامل مکانی طول و عرض جغرافیایی با مقدار ابرناکی با استفاده از آزمون ضریب همبستگی پیرسون بررسی گردید که نتایج این آزمون بیانگر همبستگی منفی با طول جغرافیایی و همبستگی مثبت با عرض جغرافیایی است. سپس مقدار ابرناکی و توزیع آن در هر یک از مقیاس­های مورد مطالعه (سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی) در پهنۀ ایران در قالب نقشه نمایش داده شد. بالاترین مقادیر سالانۀ ابرناکی در جنوب و جنوب­غربی دریای خزر در ایستگاه­های رشت، رامسر، بندر انزلی، نوشهر و بابلسر و بعد از آن در مناطق شمال­غرب کشور در ایستگاه­های اردبیل، اهر، تبریز، سراب و ماکو و کمترین مقدار در مناطق جنوب و جنوب­شرق کشور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Cloudiness Across the Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • A. Gholami 1
  • H. Mir Mousavi, 2
  • M. Jalali 3
  • K. Raispour 3
1 PhD student in University of Zanjan
2 Associate Professor of Geography Department, University of Zanjan
3 Assistant Professor of Geography Department. University of Zanjan
چکیده [English]

Introduction
 Clouds can be considered as one of the most complex and influential variables of the atmosphere system in forming of the climate structure of the earth. When the condensation process takes place at a higher altitude than the earth's surface, it creates clouds. Cloudiness represents the percentage of the atmosphere that is covered by clouds. Clouds, as one of the most complex variables of the climate system, besides changing the energy balance, are also effective in the spatial and temporal distribution of many climate variables. Clouds have a lot of temporal and spatial variability and can affect the climate through many complex relationships and affect the water cycle. The investigation of clouds holds great significance as they serve as the bridge between synoptic systems and the Earth's surface climatic conditions. Any alteration in cloud-related parameters can trigger a domino effect, influencing various other climatic variables. It's worth noting that Iran exhibits a lower average cloud cover of 26%, notably less than the global average of 50%. This places Iran in the category of countries with relatively minimal cloud cover.Hence, possessing insights into the atmospheric cloud cover conditions in Iran becomes imperative for early detection and management of hydroclimatic crises, particularly in the context of water scarcity and drought-related challenges.
 
Data and Methods
In the current research, the cloud data of 93 synoptic meteorological stations of Iran have been used in the daily time period during the statistical period of 1991-2021. The amount of cloudiness is an estimate of the nearest octa (eighth) and values 0 and 8 are completely clear and completely cloudy, respectively. In the present study, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Lilliefors test were used to determine the normality of the data at the 95% confidence level for annual, monthly and seasonal scales.
In the subsequent phase, we employed both parametric and nonparametric methods to discern trends within the cloudiness time series. The parametric approach involved a linear regression test based on the least squared error method, while the nonparametric method employed the Mann-Kendall test. These tests allowed us to identify data trends, accounting for both normal and non-normal distributions of cloudiness. Furthermore, we explored the interplay between cloud cover and spatial factors, namely latitude and longitude, employing Pearson's correlation coefficient. This analysis shed light on the relationships between these variables. Conclusively, we created a spatial distribution map depicting the extent of cloudiness across various stations. This mapping allowed us to dissect the temporal-spatial distribution of cloudiness, comprehend alterations in cloud cover, and investigate the contributing factors behind these changes.
 
Results and Discussion
The results of Normality Tests according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that all the stations did not have a normal distribution however, during the other two tests, except Arak, Kashan, Sarakhs, Takab, Kahnuj, Ramhormoz and Ramsar, other stations had normal distribution. The tests to determine the trend based on the parametric linear regression test based on the least squares error method showed a decreasing trend in 44 stations and an increasing trend in 3 stations of Ardabil, Qom and Sarab. According to the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, among the stations without normal distribution, Kahnuj, Ramhormoz and Sarakhs stations have a decreasing trend, and no special trend was observed in other stations. The relationship between the two factors of latitude and longitude with the cloudiness variable using the Pearson correlation coefficient indicates a negative relationship (-0.42) between the cloudiness variable and the longitude factor as the amount of cloudiness in Iran's atmosphere decreases with the increase of latitude. Hwoever, the relationship between cloudiness variable and latitude, a positive relationship (0.75) was obtained as the amount of cloudiness increases with the increase of latitude. The survey of the annual cloudiness map of the stations shows the highest amount of cloudiness is in the South, Southwest and East of Caspian Sea. The lowest amount of annual rainfall was in South and Southeast of Iran. The statistical analysis of annual cloudiness data in Iran showed that the amount of cloudiness in Iran is 27.5%. Examining the normal distribution of monthly and seasonal values indicates the non-normality of the data with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, but based on the Lilliefors and Anderson-Darling tests, the winter and spring seasons and the months of December, January, February, April and May had a normal distribution and the autumn and summer seasons and the months of June, July, August, September and October did not have normal distribution. Seasonal and monthly trend with linear regression method shows a decreasing trend in winter and spring seasons and cold months of the year. According to the Mann-Kendall method, there was a decreasing trend in the fall season and no significant trend was observed in the summer season.
 
Conclusion
The purpose of this research was to investigate the temporal and spatial changes of cloudiness in Iran. The results showed a decreasing trend in 47 stations and an increasing trend in only 3 stations and no significant trend was observed in other stations. Also, in monthly and seasonal scales results indicated a decreasing trend in all stations in the cold months of the year and winter, spring and autumn seasons. Examining the relationship between the spatial factors of longitude and latitude with the cloudiness variable using Pearson's correlation coefficient also indicates a negative correlation with longitude and a positive correlation with latitude, and this indicates a large spatial difference in the amount of cloudiness in the country. In general, it can be said that spatial factors (longitude and latitude) were internal factors in the spatial changes of clouds and climatic systems such as Siberian high pressure, sub-tropical high pressure, westerlies system and moisture from the seas of Oman, India and the Persian Gulf and sometimes the Red Sea as external factors were in the temporal changes of clouds. So, cloudiness was a variable that was directly related to other climate variables. Thus, cloud cover was a variable that was directly related to other climatic variables, and its decrease or increase causes the values of elements such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity to change. Therefore, studying this important climate variable and investigating its changes is very important and especially in the discussions of droughts and water crises, it has a special place.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cloud cover
  • Iran
  • Spatial-Temporal analysis
  • Trend

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آب و خاک
دوره 37، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 90
مهر و آبان 1402
صفحه 621-641

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 27 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 08 مرداد 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 17 مرداد 1402
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 18 مرداد 1402

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