نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 عضو هیات علمی و استاد تمام گروه اقتصاد،دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران
3 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
4 عضو هیات علمی و استاد تمام دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Speculation and speculative behaviors leave widespread and often destructive effects in the economy. Speculation, on the one hand, strengthens the unproductive part of the economy, and on the other hand, causes undesirable phenomena such as social dissatisfaction, inequality, inflation, etc. Therefore, the correct and efficient policies in the economy require the control of the effective factors of speculation. In this research, in the period of 1991-2022, a multi-stage quantitative method based on econometric models has been used. Therefore, first, the indicators of speculation, economic instability and political management were created using the Principal Component Analysis method, and then the factors affecting speculation were estimated by using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag. According to the research results, political management has a negative effect on speculation and by improving the political management index by one unit, the speculation index decreases by approximately 1.052%. Regarding the economic instability index, it is concluded that its effect on speculation is positive in the long term and the impact coefficient is estimated to be more than 0.96, in other words, the increase in economic instability leads to the creation of speculative opportunities and speculation Increasing. In the long term, by creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, the opportunities for rent increase in transactions to earn more profit, and thus market transactions and speculations increase. In the long term, by creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, the opportunities for rent increase in transactions to earn more profit, and thus market transactions and speculations increase.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)