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Preventable fractions of Gastric Cancer via national screening in Asian countries 2023–40: a population-based study
ABSTRACT
Background:
The incidence of gastric cancer (GC) remains high in several Asian countries, largely due to a historical lack of national screening programs.
Objective:
As a catalyst for action, we aim to estimate the number of GC cases that could be spared in four countries in the region by 2040 if national screening interventions are introduced.
Methods:
In this population-based study, we fitted age–period–cohort models to incidence data from four Asian countries (China, Mongolia, India and Turkey) to predict the number of new GC cases between 2023 and 2040 under two scenarios. In scenario A, we assumed continued absence of national screening. In scenario B, we assumed that the implementation of GC screening starting in 2023 and the subsequent gradual impact on GC incidence would be equivalent to that observed in Korea (our comparator country) after the high-quality screening activities started in the late 2000s.
Results:
Under scenario A, the incidence of GC is expected to remain substantial in four Asian countries, with a high incidence of 66.1 per 100,000 in China. Under scenario B, the beneficial effects of national screening would increase gradually over time, leading to a halving of the predicted incidence in 2040, resulting in a range of prevented cases from nearly 2,600 in Mongolia to approximately 2.7 million in China.
Conclusions:
In countries with a high burden of GC, intensifying screening activities for early detection of precancerous lesions may be a key intervention to promote a decrease in incidence.
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