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The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa

image of The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa

African governments are increasingly confronted with new forms of political violence. The situation is particularly worrying in the Sahara-Sahel where violence is on the rise. This degrading security situation has prompted African countries and their partners to intervene militarily to stabilise the region and to prevent the spread of extremism and violence against civilians. However, these initiatives face many obstacles due to the transnational nature and geography of violence. Tensions regionalise across state borders when armed groups, defeated by counter-insurgency efforts, relocate to other countries. This study maps the evolution of violence across North and West Africa, with a particular focus on Mali, Lake Chad and Libya. In the regions experiencing the highest levels of political insecurity, it identifies whether and how conflicts tend to cluster or spread, potentially across national borders. The work is based on a new spatial indicator of political violence designed to assess the long-term evolution of conflicts and provide policy options.

English Also available in: French

Military interventions in North and West Africa

Chapter 5 examines whether foreign military interventions have succeeded in limiting the intensity and geographical spread of conflicts in North and West Africa. Building on the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), the chapter shows that neither France's intervention in Mali in 2013 nor NATO's intervention in Libya in 2011 led to long-term stability in the region. During both interventions, the number of regions that experienced violence surged as part of the intervention but then rapidly decreased as the intervention progressed. In the Lake Chad region, the offensive launched by Nigeria and its neighbours in 2015 was a turning point in the war against Boko Haram, initially reducing the intensity of violence and limiting it to remote areas. However, the locations of violence have been more persistent, while not diminishing in intensity and more dispersed where violence continues to occur. Overall, this speaks to Boko Haram’s resiliency even in the face of multinational intervention.

English Also available in: French

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