Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Relationship Between Population and GDP Per Capita: Evaluation of Turkey’s 2000s

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 733 - 760, 30.06.2023

Senay Oğuztimur

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1193768

Öz

There is no consensus in literature on how economic growth and population affect each other. However, in literature, three main views are: (I) Population growth has negative impact on economic development, (II) Population growth has positive impact on economic development, (III) Population growth affects economic development neither positively nor negatively. The aim of this article is to examine how this phenomenon has been met in Turkey. With this aim the hypothesis of the research has been determined as “There is no relationship between the population and GDP per capita in provinces of Turkey. In the first step, simple index method was used to spatialize the trends of population and income data. And in the second step, relationship between population and GDP per capita in Turkey has been tested from 2004 to 2020 with the chi square independency test. As a result, the situation in Turkey is exactly as the situation we come across with in the literature. For 2004 and 2008, there is a relationship between the size of the population and the GDP per capita. The data for 2012 indicates the exact relationship with the limit value. In a sense, this is the equivalent of the view that “the relationship can neither be said to exist nor not exist”. The data of 2016 and 2020 state that there is no relation between the GDP per capita and the size of the population. These results indicate that the subject matter is multifaceted and can be explained by the contextually of the local.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Population Turkey

Kaynakça

  • Abdelbary I, ve Benhin J. (2019). Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region. Q Rev Econ Finance, 73, 184–191.
  • Abramitzky, R., ve Braggion, F. (2003). Malthusian and neo-malthusian theories, Retrieved August, 7, 2019.
  • Adeleye, B.N., Bengana, I., Boukhelkhal, A., Shafiq, M.M., & Abdulkareem, H.K. (2022). Does human capital tilt the population-economic growth dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African countries, Social Indicators Research, 1-21.
  • Ahmad, M. K, Rana E.A.(2018). Age-structure, human capital and economic growth in developing economies: A disaggregated analysis, Pakistan. Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 12(1), 229-252.
  • Amornkitvikai, Y., Harvie, C., & Karcharnubarn, R. (2022). The impact of demographic structure, human capital, migration and environmental degradation on economic growth in Asia. Journal of Economic Studies, 0144-3585.
  • Baker, D., De Long, J.B., & Krugman, P.R. (2005). Asset returns and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2005(1), 289-330.
  • Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations, Population and Development Review, 153-165.
  • Bawazir, A.A.A., Aslam, M. & Osman, A.F.B. (2021). Demographic change and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Middle East, Economic Change Restruct, 53, 429–450.
  • Becker, G.S., Murphy, K.M., & Tamura, R. (1990). Human capital, fertility, and economic growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 12-37.
  • Birdsall, N. (1982). Population and development modelling: Proceedings of the United Nations/UNFPA Expert Groups meeting, Geneva, Switzerland, 24-28 September 1979: New York, New York: United Nations, Journal of Policy Modeling, 4(3), 457-462.
  • Birdsall, N., Kelley, A. C., & Sinding, S. (2001). Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, And Poverty İn The Developing World. OUP Oxford.
  • Boserup, E. (1976). Environment, population, and technology in primitive societies. Population and Development Review, 21-36.
  • Boserup, E. (1981). Population And Technological Change: A Study Of Long-Term Trends. University of Chicago Press.
  • Boztosun, D., Aksoylu, S., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2016). The role of human capital in economic growth. Economics World, 4(3), 101-110.
  • Brahma. D. (2021). Population composition and its effect on economic growth, Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 86-100.
  • Chaurasia, A.R. (2019). Economic growth and population transition in India: 2001-2011, Demography India, 48(1), 1-18.
  • Coale, A.J., & Hoover, E.M., (2015). Population Growth And Economic Development, Population Growth and Economic Development. Princeton University Press.
  • Çömlekçi, N. (1989). Temel İstatistik İlke ve Teknikleri. Bilim Teknik Yayınevi, Eskişehir. 1989
  • Dawson, P. J., & Tiffin, R. (1998). Is there a long‐run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. The Journal of Development Studies, 34(5).
  • Ehrlich, P.R. (1968). The Population Bomb. New York, 72-80.
  • Furuoka, F.(2009). Population growth and economic development: New empirical evidence from Thailand, Economics Bulletin, 29(1), 1-14.
  • Galor, O., ve Weil, D. N. (1999). From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 150-154.
  • Güneş, S .(2005). Türkiye’de nüfus artışının ekonomik büyümeyle ilişkisi üzerine ekonomik bir analiz. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 60(03), 123-136.
  • Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons: The population problem has no technical solution; it requires a fundamental extension in morality. Science, 162(3859), 1243-1248.
  • Headey, D. D., ve Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35(2), 221-248.
  • Jensen, H.E. (1999). The development of TR Malthus's institutionlist approach to the cure of proverty: From punishment of the poor to investment in their human capital. Review of Social Economy, 57(4), 450-465.
  • Jones, B. (2002). Economic integration and convergence of per capita income in West Africa, African Development Review, 14(1), 18-47.
  • Kargi, B. (2014). Labor force participation rate and economic growth: observations for Turkey, Universal Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(4), 46-54.
  • Kelley, A.C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the third world. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(4), 1685-1728.
  • Kelly, A. C. (2001). The Population Debate In Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revisited, Duke Economics Working Paper No:99-09. Oxford University Press.
  • Khan, D.I., & Campus, V. (2021). An empirical investigation of population change’s effect on economic growth: A review of Pakistan. Ilkogretim Online, 20(1), 5728-5749.
  • Kılıçaslan, Y. and Özatağan, G. (2007). Impact of relative population change on regional income convergence: evidence from Turkey. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 19(3), 210-223
  • Kırdar, M.G. ve Saraçoğlu, S. (2006). Does internal migration lead to faster regional convergence in Turkey? An empirical investigation. Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper No: 2006/6.
  • Linden, E. (2017). Remember The Population Bomb? It’s Still Ticking, New York Times: Sunday Review, 4.
  • McCombie, J., & Thirlwall, A. P. (2016). Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, Springer.
  • Mohamed, R.A., Abd El-aziz, A.I., Ramadan, H.N., Abd El-sayed, M.H., & Emam, H.A. (2021). Impact of human capital on economic growth in Egypt: An ARDL approach. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 108, 1450-1475.
  • Murakami, D., & Yamagata, Y. (2019). Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling. Sustainability, 11(7), 2106.
  • Ogundari, K., & Awokuse, T. (2018). Human capital contribution to economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does health status matter more than education? Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 131-140.
  • Paas, T., Kuusk, A., Schlitte, F., & Võrk, A. (2007). Econometric Analysis Of Income Convergence In Selected EU Countries And Their NUTS 3 Level Regions. The University of Tartu Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper, 60.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, M.V.(2007). ˙İzmir örneğinde iç göçün ekonometrik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 14(1), 121–135.
  • Peterson, E.W.F. (2017). The role of Population in Economic Growth, Sage Open, 7(4).
  • Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century: A multidimensional approach to the history of capital and social classes. The British Journal of Sociology, 65(4), 736-747.
  • Polat, M. A.(2018). Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümenin ve nüfus artışının ekonometrik modellemesi: Ampirik bir çalışma örneği. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(1), 205-228.
  • Polyzos, E., Kuck, S., & Abdulrahman, K. (2022). Demographic change and economic growth: The role of natural resources in the MENA region. Research in Economics, 76(1), 1-13.
  • Portner, C. C. (1996). Population and Economic Growth (Doctoral dissertation, University of Washington)
  • Potter, W. J. (1986). Perceived reality and the cultivation hypothesis, Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media, 30(2).
  • Rehorick, D.A. (1979). Understanding Malthusian thought: Relevance of Malthus's categorical frame of reference, Canadian Studies in Population, 9-22.
  • Ribeiro, H.V., Oehlers, M., Moreno-Monroy, A.I., Kropp, J.P., & Rybski, D. (2021). Association between population distribution and urban GDP scaling. Plos one, 16(1), e0245771.
  • Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in human capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
  • Simon, J. L. (1995). Immigration: The Demographic and Economic Facts. Cato Institute and the National Immigration Forum, ISBN: 1-882577-33-7.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Telatar, O.M., & Terzi, H. (2010). Nüfus ve eğitimin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 197-214.
  • Thornton, J. (2001). Population growth and economic growth: Long‐run evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468.
  • Zhao, S., He, J., & Yang, H. (2018). Population ageing, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China, Sustainability, 10(12), 4627.

Nüfus ile Kişi Başına Düşen GSYH İlişkisi: Türkiye’nin 2000’li Yıllarının Değerlendirmesi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 733 - 760, 30.06.2023

Senay Oğuztimur

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1193768

Öz

Yüzyılı aşkın zamandır nüfusun ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerini konu alan araştırmalar yapılmaktadır. Bu araştırmalar sonucunda, nüfus ile ekonomik büyüme etkileşiminin iki yönlü mü tek yönlü mü olduğu, hatta olup olmadığı konusunda bir uzlaşıya varılamamıştır. Özetle, ekonomik büyüme ve nüfusun birbirlerini nasıl etkilediğine dair literatürde görüş birliği yoktur. Ancak bilimsel çalışmalarda üç ana görüş üzerinde uzlaşıldığı görülmüştür: (I) Nüfus artışı, ekonomik gelişmeyi olumsuz etkiler, (II) Nüfus artışı, ekonomik gelişmeyi olumlu etkiler, (III) Nüfus artışı ekonomik gelişmeyi ne olumlu ne de olumsuz etkiler. Bu makalenin amacı, literatürde rastlanan bu olgunun ülkemizde nasıl karşılık bulduğunu ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaçla araştırmanın hipotezi: “Türkiye’de illerin nüfusunun büyüklüğü ile kişi başına düşen GSYH arasında ilişki yoktur” olarak saptanmıştır. İki aşamalı olarak tasarlanan çalışmanın ilk aşamasında, nüfus ve gelir verilerini mekansallaştırmak için basit indeks yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. İkinci aşamasında ise, 2004 yılından 2020 yılına kadar dörder yıllık periyotla 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 ve 2020 yılları için karşılaştırmalı analizleri yapılmıştır. Ülkemizde il nüfusları ile kişi başına düşen GSYH arasında bir ilişki, ki-kare bağımsızlık testi yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’deki durum tam olarak literatürü doğrular niteliktedir. 2004 ve 2008 yıllarında, nüfusun büyüklüğü ile kişi başına düşen GSYH değeri arasında ilişki vardır. 2012 yılı verileri tam olarak sınır değer ile ilişkiye işaret etmektedir. Aslında bir anlamda “ilişki ne var ne de yok denilebilir” görüşünün karşılığıdır. 2016 ve 2020 yılları verileri ise; nüfusun büyüklüğü ile kişi başına düşen GSYH değeri arasında ilişki olmadığını söylemektedir. Bu sonuçlar; konunun çok yönlü, yerelin bağlamsallığı ile açıklanabilir olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ülkemiz şehirlerinin dengesiz nüfus dağılımı, ekonomilerine de yansımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nüfus Kişi Başına GSYH Basit Indeks Ki-Kare Bağımsızlık Testi Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Abdelbary I, ve Benhin J. (2019). Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region. Q Rev Econ Finance, 73, 184–191.
  • Abramitzky, R., ve Braggion, F. (2003). Malthusian and neo-malthusian theories, Retrieved August, 7, 2019.
  • Adeleye, B.N., Bengana, I., Boukhelkhal, A., Shafiq, M.M., & Abdulkareem, H.K. (2022). Does human capital tilt the population-economic growth dynamics? Evidence from Middle East and North African countries, Social Indicators Research, 1-21.
  • Ahmad, M. K, Rana E.A.(2018). Age-structure, human capital and economic growth in developing economies: A disaggregated analysis, Pakistan. Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 12(1), 229-252.
  • Amornkitvikai, Y., Harvie, C., & Karcharnubarn, R. (2022). The impact of demographic structure, human capital, migration and environmental degradation on economic growth in Asia. Journal of Economic Studies, 0144-3585.
  • Baker, D., De Long, J.B., & Krugman, P.R. (2005). Asset returns and economic growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2005(1), 289-330.
  • Barlow, R. (1994). Population growth and economic growth: Some more correlations, Population and Development Review, 153-165.
  • Bawazir, A.A.A., Aslam, M. & Osman, A.F.B. (2021). Demographic change and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Middle East, Economic Change Restruct, 53, 429–450.
  • Becker, G.S., Murphy, K.M., & Tamura, R. (1990). Human capital, fertility, and economic growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 12-37.
  • Birdsall, N. (1982). Population and development modelling: Proceedings of the United Nations/UNFPA Expert Groups meeting, Geneva, Switzerland, 24-28 September 1979: New York, New York: United Nations, Journal of Policy Modeling, 4(3), 457-462.
  • Birdsall, N., Kelley, A. C., & Sinding, S. (2001). Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, And Poverty İn The Developing World. OUP Oxford.
  • Boserup, E. (1976). Environment, population, and technology in primitive societies. Population and Development Review, 21-36.
  • Boserup, E. (1981). Population And Technological Change: A Study Of Long-Term Trends. University of Chicago Press.
  • Boztosun, D., Aksoylu, S., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2016). The role of human capital in economic growth. Economics World, 4(3), 101-110.
  • Brahma. D. (2021). Population composition and its effect on economic growth, Quest Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(1), 86-100.
  • Chaurasia, A.R. (2019). Economic growth and population transition in India: 2001-2011, Demography India, 48(1), 1-18.
  • Coale, A.J., & Hoover, E.M., (2015). Population Growth And Economic Development, Population Growth and Economic Development. Princeton University Press.
  • Çömlekçi, N. (1989). Temel İstatistik İlke ve Teknikleri. Bilim Teknik Yayınevi, Eskişehir. 1989
  • Dawson, P. J., & Tiffin, R. (1998). Is there a long‐run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. The Journal of Development Studies, 34(5).
  • Ehrlich, P.R. (1968). The Population Bomb. New York, 72-80.
  • Furuoka, F.(2009). Population growth and economic development: New empirical evidence from Thailand, Economics Bulletin, 29(1), 1-14.
  • Galor, O., ve Weil, D. N. (1999). From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 150-154.
  • Güneş, S .(2005). Türkiye’de nüfus artışının ekonomik büyümeyle ilişkisi üzerine ekonomik bir analiz. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 60(03), 123-136.
  • Hardin, G. (1968). The tragedy of the commons: The population problem has no technical solution; it requires a fundamental extension in morality. Science, 162(3859), 1243-1248.
  • Headey, D. D., ve Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35(2), 221-248.
  • Jensen, H.E. (1999). The development of TR Malthus's institutionlist approach to the cure of proverty: From punishment of the poor to investment in their human capital. Review of Social Economy, 57(4), 450-465.
  • Jones, B. (2002). Economic integration and convergence of per capita income in West Africa, African Development Review, 14(1), 18-47.
  • Kargi, B. (2014). Labor force participation rate and economic growth: observations for Turkey, Universal Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(4), 46-54.
  • Kelley, A.C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the third world. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(4), 1685-1728.
  • Kelly, A. C. (2001). The Population Debate In Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revisited, Duke Economics Working Paper No:99-09. Oxford University Press.
  • Khan, D.I., & Campus, V. (2021). An empirical investigation of population change’s effect on economic growth: A review of Pakistan. Ilkogretim Online, 20(1), 5728-5749.
  • Kılıçaslan, Y. and Özatağan, G. (2007). Impact of relative population change on regional income convergence: evidence from Turkey. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 19(3), 210-223
  • Kırdar, M.G. ve Saraçoğlu, S. (2006). Does internal migration lead to faster regional convergence in Turkey? An empirical investigation. Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper No: 2006/6.
  • Linden, E. (2017). Remember The Population Bomb? It’s Still Ticking, New York Times: Sunday Review, 4.
  • McCombie, J., & Thirlwall, A. P. (2016). Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint, Springer.
  • Mohamed, R.A., Abd El-aziz, A.I., Ramadan, H.N., Abd El-sayed, M.H., & Emam, H.A. (2021). Impact of human capital on economic growth in Egypt: An ARDL approach. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 108, 1450-1475.
  • Murakami, D., & Yamagata, Y. (2019). Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling. Sustainability, 11(7), 2106.
  • Ogundari, K., & Awokuse, T. (2018). Human capital contribution to economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does health status matter more than education? Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 131-140.
  • Paas, T., Kuusk, A., Schlitte, F., & Võrk, A. (2007). Econometric Analysis Of Income Convergence In Selected EU Countries And Their NUTS 3 Level Regions. The University of Tartu Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper, 60.
  • Pazarlıoğlu, M.V.(2007). ˙İzmir örneğinde iç göçün ekonometrik analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 14(1), 121–135.
  • Peterson, E.W.F. (2017). The role of Population in Economic Growth, Sage Open, 7(4).
  • Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century: A multidimensional approach to the history of capital and social classes. The British Journal of Sociology, 65(4), 736-747.
  • Polat, M. A.(2018). Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümenin ve nüfus artışının ekonometrik modellemesi: Ampirik bir çalışma örneği. Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 4(1), 205-228.
  • Polyzos, E., Kuck, S., & Abdulrahman, K. (2022). Demographic change and economic growth: The role of natural resources in the MENA region. Research in Economics, 76(1), 1-13.
  • Portner, C. C. (1996). Population and Economic Growth (Doctoral dissertation, University of Washington)
  • Potter, W. J. (1986). Perceived reality and the cultivation hypothesis, Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media, 30(2).
  • Rehorick, D.A. (1979). Understanding Malthusian thought: Relevance of Malthus's categorical frame of reference, Canadian Studies in Population, 9-22.
  • Ribeiro, H.V., Oehlers, M., Moreno-Monroy, A.I., Kropp, J.P., & Rybski, D. (2021). Association between population distribution and urban GDP scaling. Plos one, 16(1), e0245771.
  • Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in human capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
  • Simon, J. L. (1995). Immigration: The Demographic and Economic Facts. Cato Institute and the National Immigration Forum, ISBN: 1-882577-33-7.
  • Solow, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Telatar, O.M., & Terzi, H. (2010). Nüfus ve eğitimin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir inceleme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 197-214.
  • Thornton, J. (2001). Population growth and economic growth: Long‐run evidence from Latin America. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468.
  • Zhao, S., He, J., & Yang, H. (2018). Population ageing, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China, Sustainability, 10(12), 4627.
Toplam 54 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Senay Oğuztimur 0000-0002-8091-9214

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 13 Haziran 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Oğuztimur, S. (2023). Nüfus ile Kişi Başına Düşen GSYH İlişkisi: Türkiye’nin 2000’li Yıllarının Değerlendirmesi. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(2), 733-760. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1193768
 Kapak Resmi İndir
İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi  Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.