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№ 2016/2
1Institute for Economics and Forecasting, NAS of Ukraine
Methodological principles of the analysis of global crisis processes
| Ekon. teor. 2016; 2:85-99 | https://doi.org/10.15407/etet2016.02.085 |
ABSTRACT ▼
The article, based on a meta-economic methodology, proves that crisis phenomena are not merely serious disturbance in economic equilibrium but primarily represent an immanent characteristic of a cyclic and wave-like development, and a mode to renew the existing institutional structure of the society and its economy. The research identifies three entirely different types of crises arising, re-spectively, from short- and medium-term business cycles, long-term and super long-term waves of technological change, and super long-term waves of transformations in social institutions. Each of these types has its specific mechanisms of impact on socio-economic development and differing modes of exit from the crisis. The author asserts that the real politics of transformation, as a rule, is a certain combination of cardinal and swift transformations ("shock therapy") with gradual changes in more inertial blocks of the system that are linked with substantial investments and shifts in the modes of social behavior (gradualism).
Keywords: methodology of economics, world economy, global processes, economic cycles, waves of development, economic and financial crises, economic equilibrium, economic institutions, socio-cultural forms of development, gradualism
JEL: B400, F440, G010
| Article in Russian (pp. 85 - 99) | Download | Downloads :206 |
| Article in Ukrainian (pp. 85 - 99) | Download | Downloads :82 |
REFERENCES ▼
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6. Heyets, V.M., Hrytsenko, A.A. (2013). The Way Out from a Crisis (Reflections about actual things after the reading). Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 6, 4-19 [in Ukrainian].
7. Grinin, L.E., Korotayev, A.V. (2010). The Global Crisis in Retrospect. From Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. Moscow: URSS [in Russian].
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15. Raich, M., Dolan, S. (2010). The Global Crisis. Beyond the Obvious. Moscow: Pretekst (Original edition: Raich, Mario. Beyond: business & society in transformation / Mario Raich & Simon L. Dolan. Basingstoke [England]; New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008) [in Russian].
16. Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2011). This Time Things Will be Different. Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Moscow: Kar'era press. (Original edition: Reinhart, Carmen M. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009) [in Russian].
17. Roubini, N., Mihm, S. (2011). Nouriel Roubini: How I Predicted the Crisis. Emergency Training to Future Shocks. Moscow: Jeksmo. (Original edition: Roubini, Nouriel. Crisis Economics: a crash course in the future of finance. New York: Penguin Press, 2010) [in Russian].
18. Sidenko, V. (2012). Modification of the Global Economy Under the Influence of New Factors of Global Transformational Crisis. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5, 18-31 [in Ukrainian].
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20. Sidenko, V.R. (2014). Prospects of Economic Globalization in the Context of the Wave-like Nature of Development (a Theoretical Approach). Aktualni problemy mizhnarodnykh vidnosyn – Actual Problems of International Relations, 121: II, 16–25. Kyiv: Kyiv National University named after. T. Shevchenko [in Ukrainian].
21. Soros, G. (2010). The Global Economic Crisis and its Implications. A New Paradigm for Financial Markets. Moscow: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber. (Original edition: Soros, George. The crash of 2008 and what it means: the new paradigm for financial markets. New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2009) [in Russian].
22. Stiglitz, J. (2010). On the Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System. The Lessons of the Global Crisis. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija. (Original edition: Stiglitz, Joseph E. The Stiglitz Report: reforming the international monetary and financial systems in the wake of the global crisis. Joseph E. Stiglitz and members of a UN commission of financial experts; with a foreword by Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. New York: New Press, 2010) [in Russian].
23. Tugan-Baranovskij, M.I. (2004). Industrial Crises. Outline of the Social History of England. Kyiv: Naukova dumka. (Original edition: Tugan-Baranovskij M. Promyshlennye krizisy. Ocherk iz social'noj istorii Anglii. 2-e izd. S.-Peterburg: Izd. O.N. Popovoj, 1900) [in Russian].
24. De Soto, Huerta Jesús (2008). Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles. Chelyabinsk: Socium (Original edition: Huerta de Soto, Jesús. Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles. Auburn, Ala: Ludwig von Mises' Institute, 2006) [in Russian].
25. Spengler, O. (2009). The Decline of the West. Essays on the morphology of world history. In two volumes. Moscow: Akademicheskij proekt, 2009 [in Russian].
26. Schumpeter, Joseph A. (2011). The Theory of Economic Development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest and the business cycle. Kyiv: Vydavnychyi dim Kyievo-Mohylianska akademiia (Original edition: Schumpeter, Joseph A. The Theory of Economic Development. An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, and the Business Cycle. New Brunswick (USA) &London (U.K.): Transaction Publishers, 1983; first English edition – Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1934) [in Ukrainian].
27. Dicken, Peter. (2003). Global Shift: Reshaping the Economic Map in the 21st Century. 4th ed. New York and London: Guilford Press.
28. Fisher, Irwing. (1933). The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica, 1(4), 337-357. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1907327">doi.org/10.2307/1907327">https://doi.org/10.2307/1907327
29. Juglar, Clement. (1862). Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis. Paris: Guillaumin, 1862. [in French].
30. Kitchin, Joseph (1923). Cycles and trends in economic factors. Review of Economic and Statistics, 5(1), 10-16. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1927031">doi.org/10.2307/1927031">https://doi.org/10.2307/1927031
31. Kuznets, Simon S. (1930). Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
32. Minsky, Hyman P. (1982). Can "It" Happen Again?: Essays on Instability and Finance. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.
33. Minsky, Hyman P. (2008). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New York etc.: McGraw-Hill (first edition Yale University Press 1986).
34. Perez, Carlota. (2002). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publ. doi: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323">doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323">https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323
35. Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York –Toronto – London: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
2. Artomova, T.I. (2011). Methodological Anatomy of the Global Financial and Economic crisis. Ekon. teor. – Economic theory, 2, 16-33 [in Ukrainian].
3. Attali, J. (2009). The global Economic Crisis. What's Next? Moscow: Piter (Original edition: Attali, Jacques. La Crise, et apres? Paris: Fayard, 2008) [in Russian].
4. Bergman, Y.E. (2015). Historical Overview of the Theories of Economic Crises. Moscow: LENAND [in Russian].
5. Halchynskyi, A.S. (2009). The Crisis and Cycles of Global Development. Kyiv: ADEF Ukraina [in Ukrainian].
6. Heyets, V.M., Hrytsenko, A.A. (2013). The Way Out from a Crisis (Reflections about actual things after the reading). Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 6, 4-19 [in Ukrainian].
7. Grinin, L.E., Korotayev, A.V. (2010). The Global Crisis in Retrospect. From Lycurgus to Alan Greenspan. Moscow: URSS [in Russian].
8. Grinin, L.E., Korotayev, A.V. (2012). Cycles, Crises, and Traps of the Modern World-System: An Inquiry into Kondratiev, Juglar and Centennial Cycles, Global Crises, the Malthusian and Post-Malthusian Traps. Moscow: Knizhnyj dom LIBROKOM [in Russian].
9. Hrytsenko, A., Podlesna, V. (2015). Macroeconomics. Textbook. Topic 27. Socio-Economic Cycles: Historical forms and State Regulation. Ekon. teor. – Economic theory, 1, 89-99 [in Ukrainian].
10. Yeschenko, P.S. (2012). Where Goes the Global Economy in the Twenty-first Century? Kyiv: Znannia Ukrainy [in Ukrainian].
11. Kindlberger, Ch., Aliber, R. (2010). The Global Financial Crises. Manias, Panics, and Crashes. Moscow: Piter (Original edition: Kindleberger, Charles. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A history of financial crises; [with a new foreword by Robert Solow]. 5th ed. New York: Palgrave, 2005) [in Russian].
12. Kondratiev, N.D. (2002). The Major Cycles of the Conjuncture and the Theory of Foresight: Selected Works. ND Kondratieff International Foundation; International Institute of Pitirim Sorokin - Nikolay Kondratyev; Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences. Moscow: Jekonomika [in Russian].
13. Mazurenko, V.I. (2007). Global Financial Crises and National Economic Security: Theory and Methodology. Kyiv: Vydavnycho-polihrafichnyi tsentr Kyivskyi universytet [in Ukrainian].
14. Mauldin, J., Tepper, J. (2013). Decoupling. End of the Debt Supercycle and its Consequences. Moscow: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber (Original edition: Mauldin, John and Jonathan Tepper. Endgame. The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything. Hoboken, New York: John Willey & Sons, 2011) [in Russian].
15. Raich, M., Dolan, S. (2010). The Global Crisis. Beyond the Obvious. Moscow: Pretekst (Original edition: Raich, Mario. Beyond: business & society in transformation / Mario Raich & Simon L. Dolan. Basingstoke [England]; New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008) [in Russian].
16. Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K. (2011). This Time Things Will be Different. Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Moscow: Kar'era press. (Original edition: Reinhart, Carmen M. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009) [in Russian].
17. Roubini, N., Mihm, S. (2011). Nouriel Roubini: How I Predicted the Crisis. Emergency Training to Future Shocks. Moscow: Jeksmo. (Original edition: Roubini, Nouriel. Crisis Economics: a crash course in the future of finance. New York: Penguin Press, 2010) [in Russian].
18. Sidenko, V. (2012). Modification of the Global Economy Under the Influence of New Factors of Global Transformational Crisis. Ekonomika Ukrainy – Economy of Ukraine, 5, 18-31 [in Ukrainian].
19. Sidenko, V. (2015). The Global Crises of the XXI Century: a Political Economy Approach. Ekon. teor. – Economic theory, 4, 12-18 [in Ukrainian].
20. Sidenko, V.R. (2014). Prospects of Economic Globalization in the Context of the Wave-like Nature of Development (a Theoretical Approach). Aktualni problemy mizhnarodnykh vidnosyn – Actual Problems of International Relations, 121: II, 16–25. Kyiv: Kyiv National University named after. T. Shevchenko [in Ukrainian].
21. Soros, G. (2010). The Global Economic Crisis and its Implications. A New Paradigm for Financial Markets. Moscow: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber. (Original edition: Soros, George. The crash of 2008 and what it means: the new paradigm for financial markets. New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2009) [in Russian].
22. Stiglitz, J. (2010). On the Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System. The Lessons of the Global Crisis. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnoshenija. (Original edition: Stiglitz, Joseph E. The Stiglitz Report: reforming the international monetary and financial systems in the wake of the global crisis. Joseph E. Stiglitz and members of a UN commission of financial experts; with a foreword by Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. New York: New Press, 2010) [in Russian].
23. Tugan-Baranovskij, M.I. (2004). Industrial Crises. Outline of the Social History of England. Kyiv: Naukova dumka. (Original edition: Tugan-Baranovskij M. Promyshlennye krizisy. Ocherk iz social'noj istorii Anglii. 2-e izd. S.-Peterburg: Izd. O.N. Popovoj, 1900) [in Russian].
24. De Soto, Huerta Jesús (2008). Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles. Chelyabinsk: Socium (Original edition: Huerta de Soto, Jesús. Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles. Auburn, Ala: Ludwig von Mises' Institute, 2006) [in Russian].
25. Spengler, O. (2009). The Decline of the West. Essays on the morphology of world history. In two volumes. Moscow: Akademicheskij proekt, 2009 [in Russian].
26. Schumpeter, Joseph A. (2011). The Theory of Economic Development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest and the business cycle. Kyiv: Vydavnychyi dim Kyievo-Mohylianska akademiia (Original edition: Schumpeter, Joseph A. The Theory of Economic Development. An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, and the Business Cycle. New Brunswick (USA) &London (U.K.): Transaction Publishers, 1983; first English edition – Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1934) [in Ukrainian].
27. Dicken, Peter. (2003). Global Shift: Reshaping the Economic Map in the 21st Century. 4th ed. New York and London: Guilford Press.
28. Fisher, Irwing. (1933). The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica, 1(4), 337-357. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1907327">doi.org/10.2307/1907327">https://doi.org/10.2307/1907327
29. Juglar, Clement. (1862). Des crises commerciales et de leur retour périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis. Paris: Guillaumin, 1862. [in French].
30. Kitchin, Joseph (1923). Cycles and trends in economic factors. Review of Economic and Statistics, 5(1), 10-16. doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1927031">doi.org/10.2307/1927031">https://doi.org/10.2307/1927031
31. Kuznets, Simon S. (1930). Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.
32. Minsky, Hyman P. (1982). Can "It" Happen Again?: Essays on Instability and Finance. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.
33. Minsky, Hyman P. (2008). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New York etc.: McGraw-Hill (first edition Yale University Press 1986).
34. Perez, Carlota. (2002). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. Cheltenham, UK; Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publ. doi: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323">doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323">https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781005323
35. Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1939). Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. New York –Toronto – London: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
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