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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter December 7, 2023

System Relevance and Firm Performance Due to COVID-19

  • Michael J. Böhm ORCID logo EMAIL logo and Pamela Qendrai
From the journal German Economic Review

Abstract

We study the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance. Using financial accounts of a large number of German firms, we document that industry affiliation is an important economic dimension of the crisis. Motivated by this fact, we analyze an important industry-specific regulation, system relevance, which allows businesses to remain open in times of lockdown and other restrictions. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy shows that relative revenues of system-relevant firms increase by 6–9 percent and profits by 17–25 percent due to COVID. Controlling for channels that are arguably not driven by the system-relevance regulation, the impact on revenues decreases but remains significant. Overall, results indicate that regulations affecting the ability to operate as well as industry-level shocks play important roles for firm performance during a pandemic-induced crisis.

JEL Classification: H12; L25

Corresponding author: Michael J.Böhm, TU Dortmund and IZA, Dortmund, Germany, E-mail: .

We wish to thank Melanie Arntz, Holger Gerhardt, Georg Graetz, Terry Gregory, Ingo Isphording, and Reyn van Ewijk for comments. This research received funding from the project “Labor Market Consequences of Covid-19 in the Digital Era” (DKI.00.00016.20) by the German Federal Ministry for Labor and Social Affairs (BMAS).


Award Identifier / Grant number: DKI.00.00016.20

Appendix A: Descriptives and Validation of Bureau van Dijk Data

Figure A1: 
Difference in revenues before and after the pandemic – SBS versus BvD. Notes:The graph compares revenue growth 2019–2020 between SBS and BvD data for the sectors that SBS provides data on. Differently from BvD, SBS lacks data on, agriculture, administrative support services, education, health and social work, financial activities and insurance activities, art and entertainment and other services. For the BvD data the balanced panel for 2020 is used.
Figure A1:

Difference in revenues before and after the pandemic – SBS versus BvD. Notes:The graph compares revenue growth 2019–2020 between SBS and BvD data for the sectors that SBS provides data on. Differently from BvD, SBS lacks data on, agriculture, administrative support services, education, health and social work, financial activities and insurance activities, art and entertainment and other services. For the BvD data the balanced panel for 2020 is used.

Table A1:

Summary statistics.

A: full sample Mean Std. dev. P 5 P 50 P 95 Obs.
Revenues 22.43 146.92 0.77 2.90 88.66 150,620
Profits 2.73 13.15 −0.00 0.50 10.62 24,128
Total assets 13.67 95.69 0.33 1.40 52.39 150,620
Tangible assets 2.82 16.70 0.01 0.18 11.12 150,620
Technical assets 8.71 28.66 0.00 1.20 37.15 17,185
Employment 76.14 292.95 5.00 20.00 315.00 149,193
B: means by year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020–2019 Obs.
Revenues 21.46 22.63 23.11 22.52 −0.59 150,620
Profits 2.77 2.75 2.63 2.76 0.13 24,128
Total assets 12.88 13.43 13.94 14.43 0.50 150,620
Tangible assets 2.66 2.76 2.89 2.97 0.08 150,620
Technical assets 8.19 8.59 8.83 9.22 0.39 17,185
Employment 75.16 75.81 76.74 76.85 0.12 149,193
C: standard deviation by year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020–2019 Obs.
Revenues 143.28 156.83 152.35 134.22 −18.13 150,620
Profits 13.31 12.94 13.68 12.64 −1.03 24,128
Total assets 92.04 93.86 95.76 100.88 5.12 150,620
Tangible assets 15.92 16.26 16.95 17.61 0.66 150,620
Technical assets 27.16 28.08 28.75 30.52 1.77 17,185
Employment 358.43 265.55 266.92 271.27 4.34 149,193
  1. Notes: The financial variables are measured annually and expressed in million of euros. Employment is in total headcounts. The sample is the balanced panel of firms during 2017–2020. Panel A present summary statistics of the full sample. Panel B reports the means for each of the years and the difference between 2020 and 2019. Panel C reports the standard deviations for each of the years and the difference between 2020 and 2019.

Table A2:

Share of economic activity by firm size – comparison of BvD with SBS data.

[0, 10) [10, 20) [20, 50) [50, 250) 250
BvD data
Share employment 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.25 0.49
Share firms 0.25 0.29 0.27 0.13 0.04
Share revenues 0.05 0.06 0.13 0.30 0.45
SBS data
Share employment 0.19 0.11 0.12 0.18 0.40
Share firms 0.83 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00
Share revenues 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.58
  1. Notes: BvD and SBS data are compared with respect to revenues, number of firms and employment for the five firm size categories (SBS definition). Comparison is performed using the balanced sample between 2017 and 2019.

Table A3:

Share of economic activity by industry – comparison of BvD with SBS data.

BvD data SBS data
Firm share
Mining 0.003 0.001
Manufacture 0.203 0.079
Electricity/gas/steam 0.009 0.018
Water/waste management 0.011 0.003
Construction 0.175 0.139
Wholesale/retail 0.234 0.227
Transportation/storage 0.050 0.042
Accommodation/food 0.024 0.092
Information/communication 0.045 0.051
Real estate 0.018 0.063
Professionals 0.087 0.195
Employment share
Mining 0.001 0.002
Manufacture 0.254 0.257
Electricity/gas/steam 0.011 0.011
Water/waste management 0.008 0.009
Construction 0.072 0.080
Wholesale/retail 0.169 0.211
Transportation/storage 0.058 0.077
Accommodation/food 0.025 0.080
Information/communication 0.045 0.047
Real estate 0.007 0.018
Professionals 0.065 0.090
Value added share
Mining 0.005 0.003
Manufacture 0.285 0.345
Electricity/gas/steam 0.079 0.025
Water/waste management 0.007 0.013
Construction 0.045 0.066
Wholesale/retail 0.343 0.174
Transportation/storage 0.037 0.062
Accommodation/food 0.006 0.027
Information/communication 0.041 0.071
Real estate 0.007 0.041
Professionals 0.055 0.094
  1. Notes: BvD and SBS data are compared across industries with respect to firm, employment, and value added share. This is done using the balanced sample during 2017–2019 and across the 11 broad sectors for which we have data in both sources (see also Figure A1). Since we are not printing BvD sectors for which we do not have SBS data, and vice versa, the shares printed in the table do not sum to one.

Table A4:

ANOVA decomposition of variation – 5-digit industries and LMRs for 2018 and 2019.

Source 2-Digit industries 5-Digit industries
Partial SS Share (%) F Partial SS Share (%) F
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Panel A: 2018
Model 30.09 1.21 2.08 110.26 4.44 1.51
 Industry 16.11 0.65 3.03 96.28 3.87 1.51
 LMR 13.08 0.53 1.42 12.67 0.51 1.39
Residual 2455.24 98.79 2375.07 95.56
Total 2485.33 2485.33
Panel B: 2019
Model 26.77 1.34 2.30 73.71 3.69 1.25
 Industry 15.03 0.75 3.52 61.97 3.10 1.20
 LMR 10.69 0.53 1.45 10.36 0.52 1.40
Residual 1972.79 98.66 1925.85 96.31
Total 1999.56 1999.56
Panel C: 2020
Model 224.07 7.39 13.52 382.34 12.62 4.71
 Industry 203.59 6.72 33.52 361.86 11.94 5.09
 LMR 15.08 0.50 1.44 13.12 0.43 1.29
Residual 2806.54 92.61 2648.26 87.38
Total 3030.61 3030.61
Observations per year 37,655 37,655
  1. Notes: ANOVA is run on the balanced panel. Panel A presents the ANOVA results of the revenue growth in 2018, whereas Panel B presents the ANOVA for 2019 and Panel C the ANOVA for 2020. A cross-sectional version of the data set for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively, is used for the three panels. The first three columns show the results of an ANOVA run on two-digit industries (82 industries) and labor market regions (141 LMRs), whereas the three following columns report results of the ANOVA run on five-digit industries (976 industries) and labor market regions. The outcome variable is the revenue growth. Column (2) and (5) report the share of explained variation for the ANOVA on two-digit and five-digit industries, respectively. The critical F-statistic F(140, 36,692) for LMR is 1.30 for the 1 % significance level. The critical F-statistic F(81, 36,751) for two-digit industries and 0.1 significance level is 1.64, whereas the critical F-statistic F(975, 35,857) for five-digit industries and 0.1 significance level is 1.22.

One implication of industries playing such an important role in the COVID shock is that this should be true across countries. Table A5 indeed shows that the additional variation in industry-level performance has high commonality between Germany and Sweden plus the Netherlands, Austria, and France. The table reports coefficients from regressing German revenue growth (individual BvD firms in columns 1 and 2; two-digit SBS industry data in columns 3 and 4) onto two-digit industry revenue growth separately for the four other countries. While these coefficients in the preceding years are always small and only partially statistically significant, they are substantial (at least 0.6) and an order of magnitude larger in 2020. They are also statistically significant at the one percent level and R-squared rises at least sixfold. This clearly shows that the COVID shock has hit different industries across countries in the same way.

Table A5:

Commonality in industry-level revenue growth between Germany and four other European countries during 2017–2020.

Revenue growth DE (BvD) Revenue growth DE (SBS)
2017–2019 2019–2020 2017–2019 2019–2020
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Revenue growth SE 0.257*** 0.712*** 0.266** 0.845***
R-squared 0.002 0.042 0.079 0.649
Revenue growth NL 0.094*** 0.611*** 0.072* 0.586***
R-squared 0.000 0.028 0.008 0.466
Revenue growth AU −0.007 0.613*** 0.213*** 0.939***
R-squared 0.000 0.035 0.109 0.656
Revenue growth FR 0.043*** 0.686*** −0.080 1.025***
R-squared 0.000 0.037 0.014 0.717
  1. Notes: Each entry in the table represents the point estimate from a regression of German revenue growth on a specific country revenue growth. Columns (1) and (2) present these results for the firm level data (BvD), whereas columns (3) and (4) report results for aggregated data (SBS). We use SCB data for Sweden. For the other countries we use two-digit industry data from SBS. The point estimate is presented for those industries for which there is data in SBS in each of the respective countries. Robust standard errors. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Appendix B: Example of a Balance Sheet and Income Statement

We present an annual financial statement of a firm in our sample in order to illustrate the type of information used in the analysis. Searching by the name of the firm and year provided in BvD, one can download the particular financials from the Federal Gazette (“Bundesanzeiger”).[45]

Not all firms have to submit an annual financial statement to the Federal Gazzette. Reporting depends on the legal form, type of operations, size, performance and whether they are a subsidiary or not. In particular, legal forms such as corporates (AGs or GmbHs), cooperatives, commercial partnerships (GmbH & Co. KGs, GmbH & Co. OHG with only corporations as partners) have to submit their accounts. Credit institutions, external capital management companies, pension funds and insurance companies have to submit the financial statement regardless of the legal form, performance, or size. Furthermore, all firms, regardless of their legal form, have to submit if they fulfill two out three of the following conditions: (1) total assets over € 65 million, (2) revenues exceeding € 130 million and (3) an average of at least 5000 employees. BvD is more inclusive than the Federal Gazzette as it draws the data from Crefo credit ratings agency, which in turns collect information from the Federal Gazzette but also financial statements that are directly sent by the firms. Last, subsidiaries can be exempted from the obligation to disclose.

Here we take the example of a large company in the manufacturing sector (chemicals industry) because such firms report on a broader set of entries. The level of detail in the financial statement depends on the size of the firm and the type of operations. For instance, not all firms own intangible assets and there is thus no need to report this entry in the annual accounts. We present the two most important statements of the financial accounts, the balance sheet statement and the income statement.

The balance sheet statement contains the Assets Statement (Aktiva in German) and the Equity and Liabilities Statement (Passiva). These balance each other out, hence the name. Figure B1 displays the Assets Statement of our example firm, which contains information on fixed assets (Anlagevermögen), tangible assets (Sachanlagen), financial assets (Finanzanlagen), or current assets (Umlaufvermögen). This is one side of the balance sheet. The other side is the Equity and Liabilities Statement, which is shown in Figure B2. This contains information on equity (Eigenkapital), liabilities (Verbindlichkeiten), as well as other relevant entries (e.g. accruals – Rückstellungen) to the company. In our analysis, we take the information on assets from the balance sheet statement.[46]

Figure B1: 
Balance sheet statement – assets. Note:The figure shows the assets side of the balance sheet statement (aktiva in German).
Figure B1:

Balance sheet statement – assets. Note:The figure shows the assets side of the balance sheet statement (aktiva in German).

Figure B2: 
Balance sheet statement – equity and liabilities. Note:The figure shows the equity and liabilities side of the balance sheet statement (passiva in German).
Figure B2:

Balance sheet statement – equity and liabilities. Note:The figure shows the equity and liabilities side of the balance sheet statement (passiva in German).

The other key statement in the annual financial accounts is the income statement (Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung or GuV in German). The income statement of our example firm is presented in Figure B3. It contains information on revenues from sales (Umsatzerlöse), other operating revenues (sonstige betriebliche Erträge), net profits (Jahresüberschuss), and other relevant entries (e.g. taxes – Steuern) to the company. Revenues from sales are the “revenues” in our analysis and net profits is what we use for “profits”. The last important variable we use from the BvD data is employment, which is often reported (but not always) in the notes to the financial statement.

Figure B3: 
Income statement. Note:The figure shows the income statement (Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung or GuV in German).
Figure B3:

Income statement. Note:The figure shows the income statement (Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung or GuV in German).

Appendix C: Effect of COVID-19 Local Incidence Rate

This section studies the relationship between firms’ revenue growth and an indicator of the COVID-19 shock that varies at the regional level, the local incidence rate. It is constructed using the 7-day average incidence rate, where the daily incidence rate is calculated as the number of infected individuals per one hundred thousands inhabitants. The 7-day incidence rate is then aggregated (i.e. averaged) at the yearly level to get a measure for 2020. This measure is a proxy of how labor market regions have been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. In our regressions we use the log of the incidence rate to measure the elasticity of firm revenue growth with respect to it.[47]

Both of these data are retrieved from the official COVID-19 reporting database at the district level, which is maintained by the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI). Following Kosfeld and Werner (2012) the districts are aggregated into 141 labor market regions covering both West and East Germany. Each district uniquely pertains to one and only one labor market region. We use variation across labor market regions and not districts to account for commuting across districts.

We start by studying the correlation between revenue growth in 2020 and incidence rate in the labor market region where the firm operates. Figure C1 plots the correlation between weighted regional values (by the number of workers in the initial year 2017) of revenue growth in 2020 and average 7-day incidence rate. Circles represent the 141 labor market regions and their size indicates the number of workers in the initial year in each labor market region. Locations which had a higher incidence rate are associated with a slightly larger increase in revenues. This first piece of evidence hence does not indicate that regions with a higher incidence rate were hindered in performing their economic activity (e.g. because they had to go through more severe closures).

Figure C1: 
Relationship between revenue growth and incidence rate. Notes:Growth rate of revenues is the difference in log revenues between 2020 and 2019. Number of firms used to produce the graph is 37,655. Each circle represents one of the 141 labor market region, with circle sizes reflecting the number of workers in the initial year (2017) in that region (and the regression line weighed by this).
Figure C1:

Relationship between revenue growth and incidence rate. Notes:Growth rate of revenues is the difference in log revenues between 2020 and 2019. Number of firms used to produce the graph is 37,655. Each circle represents one of the 141 labor market region, with circle sizes reflecting the number of workers in the initial year (2017) in that region (and the regression line weighed by this).

We still want to study performance by incidence rate over a longer period, including any potential pre-trends. We follow the same empirical strategy as for the system relevance presented in Section 3.2. First, we look at whether revenues of high-incidence and low-incidence regions (splitting at the mean incidence rate) have exhibited parallel trends prior to the COVID-19 shock. Figure C2 indicates that revenues do not develop similarly during the pre-period, but instead they increased in high-incidence regions from 2017 to 2019 compared to low-incidence regions. Compared to this, the differences of relative log revenues in 2019 versus 2020 are tiny (they are generally small at about 0.2 percent). To account for the pretends, we include specifications with time trends across high and low incidence rate regions in our regressions that follow.

Figure C2: 
Relative firm revenues in high COVID-19 incidence regions over time. Notes:This graph shows an event study impact of the pandemic (year 2020) on relative log revenues of firms in high incidence rate regions. The event study regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the labor market region level and 95 % confidence bounds drawn around the point estimates.
Figure C2:

Relative firm revenues in high COVID-19 incidence regions over time. Notes:This graph shows an event study impact of the pandemic (year 2020) on relative log revenues of firms in high incidence rate regions. The event study regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the labor market region level and 95 % confidence bounds drawn around the point estimates.

Table C1 presents the resulting estimates of the DiD model where the treatment is the high incidence rate dummy in specifications (1)–(3) and log incidence rate in specifications (4)–(6). High-incidence regions have statistically significantly higher revenues in 2020 – coefficient on post × high incidence is positive at more than two percentage points – in columns (1) and (2). However, when we account for the pre-trends – via a linear time trend specific to high- and low-incidence regions – in column (3), this all goes away and the point estimate even turns negative though insignificant. Results using continuous log incidence rates (columns 4–6) are similar and never significant, neither statistically nor economically in either direction.

Table C1:

Firm log revenues and local COVID-19 incidence rates.

Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Post 0.0025 0.0025 −0.0606*** −0.0518 −0.0518 −0.0075
(0.0072) (0.0072) (0.0066) (0.0675) (0.0675) (0.0618)
High incidence 0.1465 0.1152 −35.0907**
(0.1583) (0.1344) (15.3632)
Post × high incidence 0.0222** 0.0222** −0.0127
(0.0110) (0.0110) (0.0111)
Log incidence 0.3172 0.2765 −32.9321
(0.2090) (0.1902) (24.1246)
Post × log incidence 0.0173 0.0173 −0.0156
(0.0179) (0.0179) (0.0166)
Linear time trend × incidence No No Yes No No Yes
Firm FE No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Observations 150,616 150,616 150,616 150,616 150,616 150,616
R-squared 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.003 0.003
  1. Notes: Outcome variable is log revenues. High incidence rate is 1 for values above the mean of the average 7-day incidence rate in the firm’s labor market region and 0 otherwise. Log incidence is the logarithm of the average 7-day incidence rate. The regressions are weighed by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the labor market region. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Overall, these results suggests that there is no detectable effect of local incidence rates on revenue growth. This is consistent with regional variation mattering little for the variance of revenue growth during the pandemic and contrary to the strong role of industry affiliation and system relevance that we found in the main text.

Appendix D: Unbalanced Panel

Table D1:

DiD estimation on retention of firms in the sample.

Retention Retention Retention
(1) (2) (3)
System relevance 0.083*** 0.082***
(0.029) (0.029)
System relevance × post 0.035* 0.025 0.015
(0.019) (0.021) (0.021)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes Yes
Firm FE No No Yes
Observations 589,764 589,764 589,760
R-squared 0.031 0.036 0.416
  1. Notes: The outcome variable is a dummy, which equals 1 when the firm is present in the data set in any year between 2017 and 2020 and 0 otherwise. “Controls” include firm size category (of the initial year) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the two-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table D2:

DiD estimates on system relevance for the unbalanced panel.

Log(rev) Rev. growth Rev. growth Rev. growth
(1) (2) (3) (4)
System relevance −0.000 0.006
(0.005) (0.004)
System relevance × post 0.074*** 0.057*** 0.056*** 0.060***
(0.019) (0.018) (0.015) (0.015)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls Yes No Yes Yes
Firm FE Yes No No Yes
Observations 329,273 220,832 220,832 187,196
R-squared 0.994 0.011 0.034 0.415
  1. Notes: The first column is an estimation of Equation (1), where the outcome variable is log revenues. The three following columns are from estimations of Equation (3), where the outcome variable is the change of log revenues (“revenue growth”). “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year), labor market region (141 unique values) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The unbalanced panel is used for these estimations. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the two-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Appendix E: Additional Tables on System Relevance

Figure E1: 
Impact of COVID-19 on system-relevant versus other firms’ log profits. Notes:This graph plots the event study impact of the pandemic (year 2020) on system-relevant firms’ relative log profits, for those firms that report positive profits. The event study regressions are weighted by number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors clustered at the two-digit industry level and 95 % confidence bounds drawn around the point estimates.
Figure E1:

Impact of COVID-19 on system-relevant versus other firms’ log profits. Notes:This graph plots the event study impact of the pandemic (year 2020) on system-relevant firms’ relative log profits, for those firms that report positive profits. The event study regressions are weighted by number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors clustered at the two-digit industry level and 95 % confidence bounds drawn around the point estimates.

Table E1:

System relevance and share of essential workers for the 2-digit industries.

Industries Share Sys.Rel Share essent-I Share essent-II Ind. cont. index
Crop and animal production 1.00 0.038 0.073 0.0
Forestry and logging 0.00 0.065 0.065 0.0
Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas 0.00 0.081 0.081 0.0
Other mining and quarring 0.00 0.182 0.182 0.0
Mining support service activities 0.00 0.084 0.094 0.0
Manufacture of food products 1.00 0.273 0.274 0.0
Manufacture of beverages 1.00 0.184 0.187 0.0
Manufacture of tobacco products 0.00 0.124 0.131 0.0
Manufacture of textiles 0.00 0.113 0.114 0.0
Manufacture of wearing apparel 0.00 0.139 0.141 0.0
Manufacture of leather and related products 0.00 0.107 0.107 0.0
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork 0.00 0.072 0.074 0.0
Manufacture of paper and paper products 0.00 0.107 0.107 0.0
Printing and reproduction of recorded media 0.00 0.072 0.096 0.0
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 1.00 0.104 0.106 0.0
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 0.00 0.107 0.110 0.0
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products 1.00 0.185 0.203 0.0
Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 0.00 0.083 0.085 0.0
Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 0.00 0.099 0.100 0.0
Manufacture of basic metals 0.00 0.071 0.073 0.0
Manufacture of fabricated metal products 0.00 0.061 0.063 0.0
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products 0.04 0.053 0.064 0.0
Manufacture of electrical equipment 0.00 0.063 0.068 0.0
Manufacture of machinery and equipment 0.00 0.062 0.067 0.0
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers 0.00 0.075 0.079 0.0
Manufacture of other transport equipment 0.00 0.058 0.067 0.0
Manufacture of furniture 0.00 0.075 0.075 0.0
Other manufacturing 0.63 0.101 0.285 0.0
Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 0.00 0.068 0.075 0.0
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 1.00 0.112 0.126 0.0
Water collection, treatment and supply 1.00 0.362 0.365 0.0
Sewerage 1.00 0.513 0.515 0.0
Waste collection, treatment and disposal activ. 0.36 0.572 0.574 0.0
Remediation activities and other waste management services 0.00 0.254 0.254 0.0
Construction of buildings 0.00 0.022 0.023 0.0
Civil engineering 0.00 0.081 0.082 0.0
Specialised construction activ. 0.00 0.034 0.035 0.0
Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles 0.00 0.107 0.109 2.3
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.20 0.251 0.260 5.2
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles 0.22 0.235 0.275 5.3
Land transport and transport via pipelines 0.94 0.749 0.751 0.0
Water transport 1.00 0.251 0.257 0.0
Air transport 1.00 0.088 0.089 0.0
Warehousing and support activities for transport. 0.94 0.575 0.577 0.0
Postal and courier activities 1.00 0.840 0.842 0.0
Accommodation 0.00 0.042 0.043 7.1
Food and beverage service activ. 0.00 0.063 0.064 6.0
Publishing activities 0.00 0.042 0.342 0.0
Motion picture, video and tv production, music 0.00 0.030 0.181 0.0
Programming and broadcasting activities 1.00 0.034 0.341 0.0
Telecommunications 1.00 0.045 0.056 0.0
Computer programming, consultancy 0.08 0.075 0.098 0.0
Information service activ. 0.91 0.086 0.207 0.0
Financial service activities, wøinsurance & pension fund 1.00 0.025 0.779 0.0
Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, wøsoc. sec. 1.00 0.031 0.692 0.0
Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activ. 1.00 0.025 0.553 0.0
Real estate activities 0.00 0.050 0.077 0.0
Legal and accounting activities 0.00 0.011 0.675 0.0
Activities of head offices; management consultancy activ. 0.00 0.109 0.155 0.0
Architectural & engineering activ. 0.00 0.059 0.066 0.0
Scientific research and development 0.00 0.093 0.129 0.0
Advertising and market research 0.00 0.031 0.105 0.0
Other professional, scientific and technical activ. 0.00 0.056 0.079 2.6
Veterinary activities 0.00 0.721 0.957 0.0
Rental and leasing activities 0.00 0.194 0.214 0.0
Employment activities 0.00 0.327 0.329 0.0
Travel agency, tour operator 0.00 0.081 0.090 7.1
Security and investigation activities 0.00 0.882 0.883 0.0
Services to buildings and landscape activities 0.00 0.364 0.366 0.0
Office administrative, office support 0.00 0.158 0.183 0.6
Education 0.00 0.372 0.537 0.0
Human health activities 0.94 0.794 0.813 0.0
Residential care activities 1.00 0.815 0.823 0.0
Social work activities without accommodation 0.56 0.771 0.781 0.0
Creative, arts and entertainment activities 0.00 0.045 0.057 6.2
Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activ. 0.09 0.133 0.427 6.6
Gambling and betting activities 0.00 0.501 0.505 7.4
Sports activities and amusement and recreation activ. 0.00 0.133 0.142 3.2
Activities of membership organisations 0.00 0.261 0.333 0.0
Repair of computers and personal and household goods 0.00 0.074 0.081 0.0
Other personal service activities 0.07 0.242 0.288 6.3
  1. Notes: The table provides the share of system relevant firms and share of essential workers of the “first hour” (column 3) and “second hour” (column 4) for each one of the 82 two-digit industries.

Table E2:

List of system-relevant 5-digit industries within non-fully system-relevant 2-digit industries.

2-Digit industries which are not fully system-relevant 5-Digit system-relevant industries
Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment
Other manufacturing Manufacture of medico-technical instruments and supplies
Manufacture of orthopaedic appliances
Dental laboratories
Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery Collection of non-hazardous waste
Collection of hazardous waste
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Agents involved in the sale of agricultural raw materials, live animals, textile raw materials and semi-finished goods
Agents involved in the sale of sugar, chocolate and sugar confectionery
Agents involved in the sale of other food, beverages and tobacco
Agents involved in the sale of pharmaceutical, medical and orthopaedic goods, laboratory equipment, physicians’ and dental material and equipment, dentists’ instruments, material and equipment for hospitals and for nursing care provided to old people
Wholesale of live animals
Wholesale of fruit and vegetables
Wholesale of meat and meat products
Wholesale of dairy products, eggs and edible oils and fats
Wholesale of beverages
Wholesale of sugar and chocolate and sugar confectionery
Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices
Wholesale of fish, crustaceans and molluscs
Wholesale of flour and cereals products
Wholesale of food n.e.c.
Non-specialised wholesale of frozen food
Non-specialised wholesale of other food, beverages and tobacco
Wholesale of pharmaceutical goods
Wholesale of medical and orthopaedic goods, dental and laboratory material and equipment
Wholesale of solid fuels
Wholesale of liquid and gaseous fuels and related products
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Retail sale of food, beverages or tobacco in non-specialised stores
Other retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating
Retail sale of fruit and vegetables in specialised stores
Retail sale of meat and meat products in specialised stores
Retail sale of fish, crustaceans and molluscs in specialised stores
Retail sale of bread, cakes, flour confectionery and sugar confectionery in specialised stores
Retail sale of beverages in specialised stores
Other retail sale of food in specialised stores
Retail sale on behalf of others of automotive fuel in specialised stores (filling stations acting as agencies)
Retail sale of private-brand automotive fuel in specialised stores (independent filling stations)
Dispensing chemist in specialised stores
Retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods in specialised stores
Retail sale via stalls and markets of food, beverages and tobacco products
Retail sale of fuels from stock
Land transport and transport via pipelines Passenger rail transport, interurban
Freight rail transport
Urban and suburban passenger land transport
Scheduled long-distance passenger transport by motor bus
Non-scheduled passenger transport by motor bus
Land passenger transport n.e.c.
Freight transport by road
Warehousing and support activities for transportation Operation of car parks and garages
Operation of road infrastructure
Operation of railroad infrastructure
Operation of terminal facilities for passenger transport, including bus stations
Operation of stations for the handling of goods carried by rail or road (except cargo handling)
Service activities incidental to land transportation n.e.c.
Operation of waterway infrastructure
Operation of ports, harbours and piers
Navigation, pilotage and berthing activities
Service activities incidental to water transportation n.e.c.
Operation of airports and airfields
Service activities incidental to air transportation n.e.c.
Cargo handling
Freight forwarding
Organisation of group consignments by sea
Other transportation support activities n.e.c.
Computer programming, consultancy and related activities Computer facilities management activities
Information service activities Data processing, hosting and related activities
News agency activities
Other information service activities n.e.c.
Human health activities Hospital activities (excluding university hospitals, preventive care and rehabilitation centres)
Activities of university hospitals
Activities of preventive care and rehabilitation centres
Other own-account activities pertaining to human health
Social work activities without accommodation Domestic social service activities
Other social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled
Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities Operation of historical sites and buildings and similar visitor attractions
Other personal service activities Activities of morticians
Operation of cemeteries and crematoriums
  1. Notes: This table lists all the 5-digit industries, which are system relevant within the 2-digit industries which are partially system-relevant.

Table E3:

Difference-in-differences estimates including share of essential workers and industry-level containment measures.

Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Share essential workers-I 0.731 −0.980***
(0.544) (0.173)
Share essential workers-I × post 0.114*** 0.128***
(0.038) (0.034)
Share essential workers-II 0.714 −0.916***
(0.551) (0.186)
Share essential workers-II × post 0.123*** 0.139***
(0.037) (0.034)
Industry containment index 0.029 0.075**
(0.058) (0.033)
Industry containment index × post −0.007 −0.007
(0.007) (0.007)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes No Yes No Yes
Observations 150,620 150,620 150,620 150,620 150,620 150,620
R-squared 0.011 0.780 0.011 0.778 0.001 0.771
  1. Notes: Column (1) and (2) estimate the relative effect of COVID-19 shock for the share of the essential workers of the “first hour”. Column (3) and (4) estimate the relative effect of COVID-19 shock for the share of the essential workers of the “second hour”. Column (5) and (6) estimate the effect of industry containment index. “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year), labor market region (141 unique values) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the two-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table E4:

DiD estimates on system relevance excluding mining and energy sectors (columns (1A) and (1B)), media and culture broad sector (columns (2A) and (2B)), health industries (columns (3A) and (3B)) and industries that suffered the most from closures and consumers’ behavioral change (columns (4A) and (4B)).

Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev)
(1A) (1B) (2A) (2B) (3A) (3B) (4A) (4B)
System relevance 0.908*** −0.226 0.947*** −0.195 0.946*** 0.116 0.919*** −0.210
(0.244) (0.166) (0.237) (0.165) (0.258) (0.107) (0.242) (0.165)
System relevance 0.077*** 0.087*** 0.076*** 0.087*** 0.061*** 0.075*** 0.065*** 0.078***
×post (0.022) (0.019) (0.021) (0.018) (0.019) (0.016) (0.021) (0.019)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes
Observations 148,142 148,142 150,431 150,431 147,862 147,862 147,770 147,770
R-squared 0.046 0.771 0.050 0.768 0.038 0.782 0.048 0.771
  1. Notes: Columns (1A) and (1B) estimate the Equation (1) excluding the mining and energy sectors. Columns (2A) and (2B) excluding the broad sector of media and culture. Columns (3A) and (3B) exclude health industries, namely human health activities and residential care activities. Columns (4A) and (4B) exclude the industries that suffered the most from closures and consumers’ behavioral change, namely accommodation, food and beverages services, creative, arts and entertainment activities, travel agency and tour operator, gambling and betting activities and sports activities, amusement and recreation activities. “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year), labor market region (141 unique values) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the two-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table E5:

DiD estimates excluding firms with up to ten workers in 2019.

Log(rev) Log(rev) Rev. grth Rev. grth
(1) (2) (3) (4)
System relevance 0.923*** −0.197 0.001 0.010**
(0.235) (0.165) (0.006) (0.004)
System relevance × post 0.096*** 0.091*** 0.072*** 0.063***
(0.022) (0.018) (0.018) (0.014)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes No Yes
Observations 142,613 142,613 104,961 104,961
R-squared 0.050 0.766 0.032 0.079
  1. Notes: The first two columns are from estimations (1), where the outcome variable is log revenues. The last three columns are from estimations (3), where the outcome variable is the change of log revenues (“revenue growth”). “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year), labor market region (141 unique values) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the two-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table E6:

Correlation between log revenues and key assets post COVID-19 shock.

Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev) Log(rev)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Log(lagged total assets) 0.776*** 0.789***
(0.009) (0.011)
Log(lagged total assets) × post 0.010*** 0.006
(0.003) (0.004)
Log(lagged fixed assets) 0.466*** 0.457***
(0.011) (0.013)
Log(lagged fixed assets) × post 0.011*** 0.005
(0.003) (0.004)
Log(lagged tangible assets) 0.439*** 0.440***
(0.012) (0.014)
Log(lagged tangible assets) × post 0.008** 0.003
(0.003) (0.004)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Industry#Year No No No Yes Yes Yes
Observations 112,962 112,962 112,962 112,959 112,959 112,959
R-squared 0.909 0.790 0.768 0.925 0.830 0.817
  1. Notes: Outcome variable is log revenues. “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year) and labor market region (141 unique values) interacted with year dummies. Columns (4)–(6) control in addition for the interaction term between two-digit industries and year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the firm level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table E7:

Difference-in-differences estimates: effects on tangible assets.

Log(tangible assets) Log(tangible assets) Log(tangible assets)
(1) (2) (3)
System relevance 1.759*** 1.015***
(0.486) (0.332)
System relevance × post −0.010 0.006 0.009
(0.027) (0.018) (0.018)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes Yes
Firm FE No No Yes
Observations 150,618 150,618 150,618
R-squared 0.096 0.479 0.990
  1. Notes: “Controls” include firm size category (of the initial year) and labor market region (141 unique values) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the 2-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

Table E8:

Difference-in-differences effects on profits including zeros and negatives.

1[profit > 0] Arc(profit)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
System relevance 0.077* 0.086** −0.010 −0.145
(0.041) (0.040) (0.134) (0.137)
System relevance × post 0.079** 0.053* 0.054* 0.353*** 0.296*** 0.301***
(0.040) (0.029) (0.030) (0.122) (0.094) (0.094)
Year dummy Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Controls No Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Firm FE No No Yes No No Yes
Observations 24,126 24,122 24,118 24,126 24,122 24,118
R-squared 0.012 0.115 0.831 0.004 0.145 0.804
  1. Notes: Columns (1) to (3) report the difference-in-difference estimates where the outcome is a dummy variable, which equals 1 for positive profits and 0 otherwise. Columns (4) to (6) report the results for the outcome Arc(profit). In this case profits are transformed using the inverse hyperbolic sine, i.e. a r c s i n h ( x i ) = log x i + x j 2 + 1 . “Controls” include firm size category following the SBS definition (of the initial year), labor market region (141 unique values) and tangible assets (of the initial year) interacted with year dummies. The regressions are weighted by the number of workers in the initial year (2017). Standard errors are clustered at the 2-digit industry level. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01.

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Received: 2023-07-08
Accepted: 2023-11-21
Published Online: 2023-12-07
Published in Print: 2023-12-15

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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