Stadium attendance demand literature

Simon Rottenberg’s [1] analysis of baseball players’ labour markets offered a seminal insight into the economics of stadium attendance. Rottenberg’s study proposed that attendance was a function of income levels, population size, team quality, the availability of substitutes and, notably, the competitive balance of the match. This early analysis of competitive balance formed the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, which states that closer sporting contests lead to great spectator interest and larger stadium attendances. This hypothesis was reinforced by Walter Neale’s [14] analysis of the ‘peculiar economics’ of sports leagues, where the greater the economic collusion and the more the sporting competition, the greater the profits. For Neale, the most important determinant of stadium attendance was match quality, which increased the demand for game admissions and in turn drove demand for skilled players. Roger Noll [15] expanded knowledge in this area, studying the determinants of demand in the four largest North American sports, concluding that attendance was higher in larger cities and that the quality of the team and players attracted more fans to matches.

These early works built a strong foundation for understanding stadium attendance demand, although as Noll [16] later pointed out, ‘the original papers do not contain a single regression’. The following 50 years saw a proliferation of studies to better understand stadium attendance demand–and these were certainly not short of regressions. Indeed, in the landmark review noted above, Schreyer and Ansari [4] undertook the most comprehensive analysis of empirical research on stadium attendance demand and included 235 regression-based empirical studies in 195 manuscripts across 13 different sports, up to August 2020. By far the most (107) focused on European football, followed by the four largest North American sports, although sports such as NASCAR [17], Ultimate Fighting [18], handball [19] and tennis [20] have also been analysed. Within this scoping review, Schreyer and Ansari [4] found the dominant manuscript themes to be the role of sporting contest characteristics, especially outcome uncertainty, and the role of star players and team success. These key themes form the focus of our paper and we discuss them in more detail below. Schreyer and Ansari’s [4] review also highlighted specific gaps in knowledge in this area and we return to these at the end of this section.

Sporting contest (outcome uncertainty and competitive intensity)

The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) underpins many of the policies within professional sports markets and, as a result, the importance of outcome uncertainty to stadium attendance demand has become a key area of debate [21–31]. Indeed, Schreyer and Ansari’s [4] review found that the titles of roughly a quarter of all the studies they included referred to the concept of outcome uncertainty.

However, the findings from empirical research on the importance of outcome uncertainty are not conclusive [32–36]. Within football specifically, a number of studies across both American and European leagues [21,23,36–43] have found that there is a limited relationship between outcome uncertainty and stadium attendance. As a result, some researchers have proposed an alternative view that the relationship between outcome uncertainty and stadium attendance follows a reference-dependent preferences model [44,45]. Based on Prospect Theory [46], which proposes that individuals assess their loss and gain perspectives in an asymmetric manner, it has been suggested that fans’ decisions to attend are influenced by the opportunity to watch their team either play a far inferior opponent (loss aversion) or cause an upset result against a stronger team (the ‘David and Goliath effect’). In this model, fan demand instead follows a U-shaped curve, with demand increasing as match certainty increases in either direction. Despite this debate surrounding the validity of the UOH, the theoretical assumption that fans prefer more balanced contests continues to underpin policies in North American and European sports aimed at redistributing resources, including salary caps, reverse-order drafts and revenue sharing.

Beyond uncertainty of outcome, an additional measure of sporting contest, first proposed by Kringstad and Gerrard [47,48], is competitive intensity. While uncertainty of outcome represents the importance of relative balance between teams, competitive intensity is based on the uncertainty of outcome in relation to sporting stakes. The assumption for this measure is that, alongside uncertainty of outcome, fans are also motivated by the level of sporting prize that is at stake during the match. Scelles et al. [42] were the first to empirically analyse the effect of competitive intensity on stadium attendance demand and numerous studies have since incorporated it [21,23,42,49–51]. These studies have found that competitive intensity has a significant impact on consumer interest across different European football competitions, albeit it to differing degrees dependent upon the competition and sporting prize in question. Our study will examine the effect of both uncertainty of outcome and the level of competitive intensity on stadium attendance demand.

Match quality (team quality and star players)

Characteristics demand theory [52] proposes that all goods possess characteristics that are demanded by consumers. For stadium attendees of sporting events, these characteristics can be defined as the overall match quality on show. Researchers have previously captured this demand through variables for both overall team quality and the presence of star players. Within European football, team quality has been the dominant measure of match quality. It has been operationalised in a variety of ways, including home and away team budgets, team reputation, the current and past season winning percentages, the expected quality of teams at the start of the season and the number of goals a team has scored [21,23,35,36,41–43,53–55]. Serrano et al. [31] analysed match attendance in four major European football leagues during the 2012/13 season and found that the most important variable was team quality, measured by the value of the players taking part. Further studies of individual leagues have found team quality to be a significant factor for stadium attendances in the English Premier League [24,37], Spanish La Liga [55], Italian Serie A [23] and French Ligue 1 [42].

The ‘star player effect’ was established by Rosen’s model [56], which predicted that a small number of athletes with marginally more talent than their peers will attract far more fans who will pay to watch them. Academic literature on the impact of individual star players on stadium attendance is very well developed in the North American sports markets, with researchers finding a positive association between the two in the NBA [6,7,9,57,58], Major League Baseball [11,12,59] and the NFL [60]. Star players’ impact on stadium attendance has also been captured in other sports, including tennis [20], boxing [61], cricket [62], the Japanese Professional Baseball League [63] and the Ultimate Fighting Championship [64]. Within football, analysis of the effect of individual star players on stadium attendance demand has mainly focused on Major League Soccer [8,10,39,43,65,66], with top earning players, MLS All-Star players and designated players all found to attract higher stadium attendances. Studies have also found a positive effect of star players on attendance in the U.S. Women’s Professional Soccer League [67] and the Chinese Super League [68].

In European football, however, there has been almost no empirical research directly examining the effect of individual star players. To date, the only study that examines the ‘superstar effect’ on stadium attendance is by Brandes et al. [69], who found that, within the German Bundesliga, ‘local heroes’ enhanced home match attendance and ‘star players’ increased attendance both at home and on the road. Meanwhile, Wills et al. [13] examined the effect of star players on TV audiences for the UCL and found a significant, positive effect. This lack of research is surprising, especially given the wealth of literature on stadium attendance demand in European football [4] and the findings from the North American research, i.e., that star players often have an impact on fan interest over and above the impact they have on the ability or success of the team they play for. This lack of focus on individual star players may be, in part, because European football stars tend to be split across different national leagues [13]. In this sense, the UCL–the only competition in club football where the world’s best players and teams compete every year–offers the rare opportunity to consider individual star players as a variable within European football. Our study will seek to expand understanding in European football by examining the effect of both team quality and the presence of star players on stadium attendance demand.

New stadium attendance demand insights–UEFA Champions League

Schreyer and Ansari’s [4] scoping review of stadium attendance demand research found that ‘half of all the studies centred on stadium attendance demand for European football’ (p.14) and their measure of study frequency by sport predicts that the gap between European football and other sports is likely to widen in the future. Yet despite this focus on European football, Schreyer and Ansari [4] identified notable gaps in stadium attendance demand analysis, in particular the lack of studies on ‘domestic and international cup competitions’ (p.23). Across the scoping review, just four studies focused on international tournaments [51,70–72] and Schreyer and Ansari [4] name-checked the men’s UEFA Champions League as a competition that ought to be examined, with only one published study to date on the women’s version [51]. Wills et al. [13] analysed the determinants of TV demand in the men’s UCL, but the scope of this analysis was limited to six nations, due to restrictions on the data available. This lack of understanding of the men’s UCL is particularly surprising, as it is widely regarded as the most prestigious competition in club football and is the only competition where the elite clubs and players from all of Europe’s top-tier football leagues can meet. This paper will look to fill this gap, by offering the first empirical study of the determinants of stadium attendance in the men’s UCL. Due to the greater availability of stadium attendance data, this study is also able to consider the demands of consumers in all 32 nations that took part in the UCL from 2009/10 to 2018/19. This allows us to separately analyse and compare the determinants of stadium attendance for clubs in the top five leagues, which are largely those that have the potential to join a European Super League, and the clubs outside those leagues.

Empirical findings

The findings of our analysis are presented in Tables 2–4.

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Table 2. UCL attendance, all matches.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276383.t002

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Table 3. UCL attendance in the countries hosting the top five leagues.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276383.t003

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Table 4. UCL attendance in the other countries.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0276383.t004

Seven different specifications of the demand model have been tested. In the first specification, we have only considered the two teams’ quality, whereas in the other six the team quality variables have been excluded and the star player variables included. We did this to clearly differentiate the effects of these two types of variables, first because star players are inevitably linked with the teams with the highest roster value and second because the UCL offers a first opportunity to consider the impact of individual star players on attendances in European football. First, the regressions have been run by using the whole dataset (Table 2). Then, in order to investigate whether the determinants of stadium attendance have a different impact depending on whether fans belong to clubs in the top five European leagues (i.e., those more accustomed to attending matches with more talented clubs and players and whose clubs have the potential to join a ESL), or to clubs belonging to the other European leagues, we have split the dataset into two sub-groups: 746 matches played in the countries hosting the top five European leagues (England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain) and 488 matches played in the other countries (Table 3 and 4 respectively). All the continuous explanatory variables are expressed in natural logs to interpret the estimated coefficients as elasticities. The absence of strong collinearity is proved by the value of the variance inflation factors (VIF) for the independent variables, that are all significantly lower than 10. Moreover, the Breusch-Pagan test reveals the presence of heteroskedasticity: therefore, robust standard errors are estimated.

Sporting contest (outcome uncertainty, team form and competitive intensity)

The first interesting finding is that uncertainty of outcome is only significant in one specification, for fans of clubs in the top five leagues when including team quality among the explanatory variables, and is not significant in all 20 other specifications. This is consistent with other recent research that does not find outcome uncertainty to be particularly, or at all, significant in driving attendance in European football [21,23,36,37,41,42,82]. In fact, the findings show weak evidence of a negative effect of outcome uncertainty on attendance for clubs in the top five leagues, whose fans may be more loss averse [44], and no effect at all for clubs in the other countries, whose fans are likely to be aware of the gap with the top UCL clubs and are instead attracted by the quality of the opponents. It is worth saying that these findings do not mean that fans are entirely unmotivated by uncertainty of outcome and that, if the outcome was known in advance, stadium attendance demand would still be high. Instead, it is to say that within the broader context of European football, where there is obviously a certain level of outcome uncertainty, tightly balanced matches do not seem to have a specific, significant effect on fans’ behaviour in attending the stadium.

Although our research suggests that outcome uncertainty is not a significant factor, the results on team form do suggest that fans are still somewhat influenced by a feature that might lead to a more balanced match. These findings show that better form for the away team has a significant positive impact on attendances in the top five leagues in all but one specification, whereas better form for the home team has a significant positive impact on attendances in the other leagues in all but one specification. In both scenarios, this represents the team which has the longest odds of winning the match. In the top five leagues, a €1 bet on the home team would on average return €2 for a win, whereas the away team would on average return €6.50, showing the away team is the clear underdog in most matches. In the other leagues, a €1 bet on the home team would on average return €3 for a win, whereas the away team would on average return €2.40, this time showing that the home team is more often the underdog. Therefore, the findings suggest that fans are more attracted to a match when the weaker team is experiencing a run of better form in the competition.

Finally, there is no evidence of an impact of competitive intensity on attendance in the analysis conducted on the whole dataset as well as within the top five leagues in either the group stage or knockout rounds. There is also no impact of competitive intensity on attendance during the knockout rounds in the other countries, although there is a weak significance during the group stage. This is unusual within European football, as previous studies that included this variable found at least a weak positive effect on stadium attendances [21,23,42,50,51]. Our finding could in part be due to the fact that most tickets for the group stage are sold before the fans know whether the final matches will be critical for qualification, and tickets in the knockout stage are sold before fans know the result of the first leg. It may also be because there are more star players and higher quality teams in the UCL, meaning that the level of competitive intensity in each match is less essential than for domestic leagues.

Match quality (team quality and star players)

Overall, the findings suggest that fans are primarily attracted by the quality of the teams and players on show. If we consider the whole dataset, only the away team quality shows a positive impact on attendance. However, some differences emerge when analysing the two different subgroups. The coefficients of the team quality variables in the countries outside the top five leagues show that: 1) the higher the away team quality, the higher the attendance, which is a confirmation that the quality of the opponents matters [31]; and 2) the lower the home team quality, the higher the attendance, potentially showing evidence of the ‘David and Goliath effect’. Team quality is also an important factor for fans of clubs in the top five leagues, albeit with a lower coefficient. However, these fans are not significantly influenced by the quality of their own team, likely because it is on average higher than the opponents. This is consistent with previous studies in European football which show that opponents’ quality matters to all fans, but more so to fans of lower ranked clubs [49,50,83].

Even though all the variables capturing the presence of star players show significant positive coefficients in the regressions conducted on the whole dataset, when analysing the two different subgroups the presence of star players is also much more attractive for fans of clubs outside the top five leagues. Indeed, the star player variable is only significant in one specification for fans of the top five leagues, whereas it is significant in all six specifications for fans of clubs in the other leagues. This suggests that the presence of star players is more of a motivating factor for fans who are less accustomed to the presence of such players, and for whom the UCL is the only competition that offers the potential to watch such star players.

Competition structure (stage of competition and derby)

The analysis conducted on the whole dataset shows that group stage matches are less attractive. However, there is no evidence that the stage of the competition significantly affects attendance levels for fans of clubs outside of the top five leagues, although the strength of the coefficient does increase during the latter stages. Our findings do suggest that group stage matches are less attractive only for fans of clubs in the top five leagues. This finding, along with the fans’ preference for better opponents, may support one of the arguments of the ESL promoters that the current format is not particularly attractive as it allows only a limited number of matches between elite clubs before the knockout stage. This is due to the seeding format of the group stage, where the UCL title holder, Europa League title holder and league champions of the top six ranked associations are placed into ‘Pot 1’ and cannot be drawn against each other. However, it should be recognised that this finding is only within the existing context of the competition, i.e., where there is a certain level of outcome uncertainty and where elite clubs are not guaranteed entry into the competition every season, as was planned in the recent ESL proposals.

Derby matches involving two teams from the same country also do not appear to attract a higher crowd due to a more intense rivalry. This runs counter to previous findings in domestic league competitions in European football [37,84,85], but is consistent with Valenti et al’s [51] findings in the women’s UCL. It should be noted that derby matches are not widespread in the UCL, as clubs from the same country cannot be drawn into the same group and are also kept apart in the first knockout round draw, meaning that there were only 15 instances of derby matches in our entire dataset.

Explanatory variables (income, distance, temperature and rain)

The regional income of away teams is a significant predictor of attendance levels for matches in all but one specification, although it should be noted that the strength of the coefficient is also relatively small throughout. This suggests that the purchasing power of away team fans affects their ability to travel and support their team in international matches. Although interestingly distance, a proxy for the travelling costs for away supporters, is not a significant factor in any specification. This may be because most matches require significant international travel, with the average distance to a match being 1,541 kilometres. As a result, the opportunity cost of attending an away match is similar regardless of which area of Europe you are travelling from and to, meaning that increased travel time does not deter fans from attending UCL matches in the same way it does for domestic leagues [33,83].

However, the importance of the regional income levels of home fans–whose coefficients are significant and positive when analysing the whole dataset–is not consistent between leagues. The purchasing power of home team fans is not significant for clubs in the top five leagues, but is a highly significant predictor of attendance for those clubs outside the top five leagues. This may reflect the different income levels in these regions, with an average income per capita in the top five leagues of €50,212, compared to €27,675 in the other leagues. Whereas no region in the top five leagues has an average income per capita below €19,000, nearly half of the regions in the other leagues have an average income per capita below this level.

Finally, favourable weather conditions are not strongly associated with higher attendances in the UCL, with the presence of rain insignificant for clubs in all leagues and higher temperatures only significant for clubs outside the top five leagues, but with a very small coefficient. The significance of temperature in the other leagues may be due to the temperature of matches played in these countries were, on average, 2 Celsius lower. These matches also experienced more extreme cold weather, with temperatures as low as -9 Celsius during some games compared to -3 Celsius at the lowest in the top five leagues.

Limitations and future research

As with any study, the analysis undertaken here has some limitations, due to the unavailability of certain data. First, it was not possible to retrieve data on ticket prices, which limits the understanding of the specific price effect on attendance. Second, it was not possible to differentiate between the number of home and away fans present at each match, meaning we were unable to account for behavioural differences in certain matches where there were a greater number of away fans. Third, it was not possible to differentiate between the proportion of season tickets and match-day tickets sold, which has the potential to distort findings where there could have been greater fluctuations in attendance levels had the tickets not already been allocated to season ticket holders. However, despite these limitations, which affect most stadium attendance demand analysis, we believe the findings are robust enough to draw reliable conclusions on UCL fan behaviour.

Nevertheless, there is a great deal more that researchers in this area could do. As Schreyer and Ansari [4] urged, we need more research on stadium attendance demand in international cup competitions. This study is one major step, but, as just one example, the Europa League, UEFA’s second-tier club competition, has been running for 50 years and is also lacking any empirical analysis of stadium attendance demand. A greater understanding of this competition would offer an important insight for UEFA, who have expanded their competition offering further in the 2021/22 season, with the launch of a third-tier club competition, the UEFA Europa Conference League. Similarly, Schreyer and Ansari’s [4] scoping review also noted a lack of focus on domestic cup competitions and women’s sports, analysis of which would allow for a greater comparison between the determinants of demand for different competition formats.