Modeling the evolution of COVID-19 via compartmental and particle-based approaches: Application to the Cyprus case
Fig 8
Modeling of longer time series.
The SEIQR model (left) and the particle model (right) fitted to the Cyprus cumulative confirmed cases up to November 30th (solid blue curve and band) as explained in the addendum and compared to scenario A (dashed red curve and band). The filled black circles are the Cyprus confirmed cases included in the fit, while the open black circles are not included in the fit. The forecast is for one month, assuming the infection rate stays constant. In the lower panels we show the effective reproduction number as obtained by applying Eq (16) to the Cyprus confirmed cases denoted as (black curve), in addition to Rmodel(t) (blue curve) and Rintegral(t) (orange dashed curve).