Affirmative action, critical mass, and a predictive model of undergraduate student body demographics
Fig 8
Model predictions for University of California-Los Angeles.
While the uncertainty in prediction is large after two years due to the difficulty in extrapolating model input parameters, it is clear that the proportion of Black students will remain quite low. Colored dots are model output obtained when using the parameters forecast in Inferring Model Parameters. We perform an additional 2800 model simulations using parameter sets generated by Latin hypercube sampling. Grey bands indicate the central 95% of these results. Demographic proportions are relative to each other; see Mathematical Model.