A clinically parameterized mathematical model of Shigella immunity to inform vaccine design
Fig 5
Numerical simulations of model dynamics for the best fits to primary 2457T rechallenge data (2T: 2457Tx1).
Vertical axis units are number of Ab per mL (highest three lines: AE, AI, G), number of ASC (middle lines: PA, PG), number of BM (lower flat lines: MA, MG), and bacterial cfu (lower dashed lines: SE, SI1, SN, SI2; rising purple dashed lines: SC). The model is fit to LPS (a–c) or OMP (d–f) primary infection data from volunteers who received a single wild-type challenge in the 2457T rechallenge study (2T: 2457Tx1). The model is only fit to primary (1) infection data (2T: 2457Tx1). Secondary (2) infection data (2T: 2457Tx2) from 2457T rechallenge study volunteers who received two wild-type challenges (and no previous vaccine) are given for reference but were not used for these fits. No tertiary infection data (2T: EcSf2a-2x1, 2457Tx2) are included. To match clinical conditions, both the primary and secondary infections are initialized at 1,400 cfu of luminal Shigella. Abbreviations and distinctions between Primary (a, d), Stable Secondary (b, e), and Unstable Secondary (c, f) Dynamics are as described in the previous figure caption.