A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
Fig 1
Gantt chart showing simulated baseline (no interruption) and interruption scenarios.
Each section shows the model assumptions for the timing of interruptions to different strategy components (interventions). The green background indicates the intervention is running as normal. Orange background indicates the intervention has been suspended (in the case of AS or VC) or reduced (in the case of PS). E.g. a 9-month interruption to AS is assumed to last from April 2020 to December 2020 and so has an orange background for this time period. The right hand side of the diagram shows how the different types of interruptions are combined together to make up the baseline and six interruption scenarios. Each health zone falls into one of four categories, (i) existing VC prior to 2020, (ii/iii) VC was planned to start in 2020/21, or (iv) no VC planned. For health zones with existing or planned VC, interruption is indicated by crosses for no deployment when there was one expected in the baseline. In these health zones there may or may not have been deployments at the beginning of 2019—we simulate the deployments that occurred in specific health zones. In regions with existing VC deployments, only the deployments during the interruption period are impacted. However, for health zones planning to start new VC intervention, we assume the initial deployment was pushed back by one or two full years and so deployment does not take place immediately after interruption ends; these additional missed deployments are denoted by crosses with stars. AS: active screening; PS: passive screening; VC: vector control; B: Baseline.