Imported Episodic Rabies Increases Patient Demand for and Physician Delivery of Antirabies Prophylaxis
Figure 5
Weekly numbers of notified human contacts with animals that led to a consultation at an ARMC.
This figure illustrates the behaviors associated with notified exposures at ARMC (n = 56,446). The model combines a forecasting ARIMA model for 2000–2004. Events #1, #2, #4, #5 and #6 correspond to illegal importations of rabid dogs from Morocco, while event #3 was an imported human case from Gabon. Event #1 could not been analyzed because the duration of observations preceding the event was too short to implement ARIMA modeling. The solid black line traces patients' ARMC consultations; the thick red line corresponds to the step-by-step modeling prediction of those consultations; the dashed red lines for event #3 and #6 represent the upper 95% CI. Note the increased consultation rates for these events, especially #6.