An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA
Fig 5
Forecasting performance metrics for the ARIMA and Ensemble(4) models across 98 30-day forecasts.
The symbol (^) indicates weekly forecasts where the Ensemble(4) model outperforms the ARIMA model. For instance, the Ensemble(4) outperformed the ARIMA model 69.4% of the time in terms of the WIS and 91.8.8% of the time in terms of the coverage rate of the 95% PI (Figs 3 and 5).