An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA
Fig 1
Performance metrics quantifying the quality of the sub-epidemic model fits to 98 sequential weekly calibration periods of the daily time series of COVID-19 deaths in the USA from 20-April-2020 through 22-February 2022.
The best fit sub-epidemic model and three ensemble models constructed using the top-ranking sub-epidemic models (Ensemble(2), Ensemble(3), Ensemble(4)) yielded similar quality fits.