COVID-19 modeling and non-pharmaceutical interventions in an outpatient dialysis unit
Fig 7
Frequency of replicates as a function of attack rates for different NPIs: (A) Scenario 1 and (B) Scenario 2.
Each histogram displays the number of replicates (y axis; out of 500) with the specified overall attack rate. In Scenario 1, two peaks are commonly observed for each histogram; one where no transmission events occur (the infection is immediately quashed) and one indicating the fuller extent of an eventual outbreak. When no intervention is imposed (Baseline), only 31 simulations (6.2%) have no transmission events, while 83.6% (418) resulted in attack rates larger than 90%. In contrast, Baseline+++ and Baseline++ significantly increases the likelihood of observing no transmission events (162 and 175 simulations, 32.4% and 35.0%, respectively). In Scenario 2, even with interventions, infection is never quashed in any replicate. However, even in this scenario, there are no replicates with Baseline+++ interventions that have a near-100% attack rate. Furthermore, the frequency mass of the Baseline+++ intervention is substantially shifted to the left (towards lower attack rates) relative to the Baseline simulations.