Forecasting national and regional influenza-like illness for the USA
Fig 3
Accuracy of submitted forecasts for timing of onset, timing of peak and intensity of peak.
(A) Weekly mean absolute error for the n-week ahead forecast (1 week, green; 2 weeks, purple; 3 weeks, orange; and 4 weeks, blue) and the historic NULL model (black). The average mean absolute error of each forecast horizon, and of the historic prediction, is shown in the legend. Forecast and actual onset week (B), peak week (C) and peak intensity (D) during each week of the CDC challenge: selected forecast (red line); 95% prediction interval (red shading); observed value (gray horizontal line); historic mean (horizontal dashed line); and historic median (horizontal dotted line). The vertical gray line shows the actual 2016-17 peak week (A, C and D) and the actual 2016-17 onset time (B).