基于作战交互网络的体系作战能力计算

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2022.1039

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为解决现有的作战网络模型难以体现作战双方交互动态、节点删除策略脱离作战实际、体系能力量化过度依赖杀伤链数量等问题,提出一种基于交互对抗网络模型的体系作战能力计算分析方法。建立红蓝双方交互网络模型,将双方作战节点都纳入网络模型,通过可达性节点删除策略实现双方节点更新;引入杀伤链能力及体系杀伤链能力等概念,并以毁伤规模量化体系作战能力;考虑到不等概率网络2端连通度计算时的复杂度,采用蒙特卡洛仿真法求解体系杀伤链能力。仿真实验分析了影响体系作战能力的关键变量,并和其他方法进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,指控节点功能能力提升是作战体系的核心关键,对己方体系作战毁伤能力的非线性提升、敌方体系的非线性压制具有重要作用,仿真对比实验验证了所提方法的优越性。

关键词: 体系作战能力, 作战交互网络, 杀伤链, 网络联通性

Abstract:

Traditional combat network models struggle to reflect interaction dynamics between combat parties and often neglect practical node deletion strategies. Additionally, system capability quantification often relies excessively on the number of kill chains. To address these issues, this paper proposes a system combat capability analysis method based on an interactive adversarial network model. The paper establishes a red-blue interactive network model that incorporates both combat nodes into the network model, and suggests updating both nodes through a reachable node deletion strategy. It introduces the concepts of kill chain capability and system kill chain capability, and quantifies the system combat capability based on the scale of destruction. To account for the complexity of calculating two-terminal connectivity in unequal probability networks, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to solve the system kill chain capability. Simulation experiments analyze key variables affecting the system combat capability and validate the analysis with other methods. The results show that the enhancement of the functional capability of the accusation node is the core key of the combat system, which plays an important role in the non-linear enhancement of the combat destruction capability of the own system and the non-linear suppression of the enemy system, and the simulation comparison experiments verify the superiority of the method in this paper.

Key words: system combat capability, combat interaction network, kill chain, network connectivity

中图分类号:

N945

陈文钰, 李为民, 张涛, 邵雷, 徐海洋, 王希. 基于作战交互网络的体系作战能力计算[J]. 兵工学报, 2023, 44(10): 2885-2896.

CHEN Wenyu, LI Weimin, ZHANG Tao, SHAO Lei, XU Haiyang, WANG Xi. Calculation of System Combat Capability Using an Interactive Network Approach[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2023, 44(10): 2885-2896.

图/表 19

表1 节点连接关系

Table 1 Factors in the table

序号	边	意义	属性
1	E₁:BS→RS	蓝方侦察类节点被红方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
2	E₂:BI→RS	蓝方效应类节点被红方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
3	E₃:BD→RS	蓝方指控类节点被红方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
4	E₄:RS→RD	红方侦察类节点向红方指控类节点传输信息	情报上传
5	E₅:RD→RI	红方决策类节点向红方效应类节点下达命令	指令下达
6	E₆:RI→BS	红方效应类节点对蓝方侦察类节点实施打击	效果施加
7	E₇:RI→BI	红方效应类节点对蓝方效应类节点实施打击	效果施加
8	E₈:RI→BD	红方效应类节点对蓝方决策类节点实施打击	效果施加
9	E₉:RS→BS	红方侦察类节点被蓝方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
10	E₁₀:RI→BS	红方效应类节点被蓝方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
11	E₁₁:RD→BS	红方指控类节点被蓝方侦察类节点探测到	预警侦察
12	E₁₂:BS→BD	蓝方侦察类节点向蓝方指控类节点传输信息	情报上传
13	E₁₃:BD→BI	蓝方决策类节点向蓝方效应类节点下达命令	指令下达
14	E₁₄:BI→RS	蓝方效应类节点对红方侦察类节点实施打击	效果施加
15	E₁₅:BI→RI	蓝方效应类节点对红方效应类节点实施打击	效果施加
16	E₁₆:BI→RD	蓝方效应类节点对红方决策类节点实施打击	效果施加

图1 杀伤链示意图

Fig.1 Kill chain diagram

图2 多条杀伤链示意图

Fig.2 Multiple kill chains

图3 蒙特卡洛仿真流程

Fig.3 Monte Carlo simulation process

图4 红蓝作战体系网络拓扑图

Fig.4 Network topology of the Red-Blue Combat System

表2 作战节点详细情况

Table 2 Detailed data of combat nodes

类型	数量	能力期望	能力方差	可靠度期望	可靠度方差	防护能力期望	防护能力方差
RS	10	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01
RD	5	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01
RI	10	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01
BS	10	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01
BD	5	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01
BI	10	0.3	0.01	0.8	0.01	0.8	0.01

图5 不同类型红方节点的功能能力对交互前杀伤链均值的影响

Fig.5 Influence of functional ability of different types of red cube nodes on mean value of kill chain before interaction

图6 不同类型红方节点的功能能力对交互前体系作战能力的影响

Fig.6 Influence of functional capability of different red cube nodes on combat capability before interaction

图7 不同类型红方节点的功能能力对交互后杀伤链均值的影响

Fig.7 Influence of functional ability of different types of red cube nodes on mean value of kill chain after interaction

图8 不同类型红方节点的功能能力对交互后体系作战能力的影响

Fig.8 Influence of functional capability of different red cube nodes on combat capability after interaction

图9 不同类型红方节点的功能能力对交互后双方节点损失比例的影响

Fig.9 Influence of functional ability of different types of red cube nodes on the loss ratio of both sides after interaction

表3 A与B的作战节点情况

Table 3 Operation nodes of country A and country B

类型	数量	能力期望	能力方差	可靠度期望	可靠度方差	防护能力期望	防护能力方差
RS	9	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01
RD	3	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01
RI	9	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01
BS	9	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01
BD	3	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01
BI	9	0.35	0.01	0.85	0.01	0.75	0.01

图10 交互前杀伤链数目均值

Fig.10 Mean number of killing chains before interaction

图11 交互后杀伤链数目均值

Fig.11 Average number of kill chains after interaction

图12 交互后双方的节点损失比例

Fig.12 Node loss ratio of both sides after interaction

图13 交互前体系作战能力

Fig.13 System combat capability before interaction

图14 交互后体系作战能力

Fig.14 System combat capability after interaction

图15 交互前体系作战能力(文献[15]中的方法)

Fig.15 System combat capability before interaction (in Ref.[15])

图16 交互后体系作战能力(文献[15]中的方法)

Fig.16 System combat capability after interaction (in Ref.[15])

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