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中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 35-38.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-3292

所属专题: 水稻 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

贵州省秋风对水稻影响评估模型的研究

莫建国 于飞 梁平   

  • 收稿日期:2012-10-07 修回日期:2012-11-17 出版日期:2013-03-25 发布日期:2013-03-25
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放基金课题(LPM2011013); 黔科合重大专项 (字[2011]6003号); 黔气科合[KF(2010)04]。

The Evaluation Model of Low Temperature Influence on Rice in Autumn in Guizhou Province

  • Received:2012-10-07 Revised:2012-11-17 Online:2013-03-25 Published:2013-03-25

摘要: 为了更好地对秋风灾害进行监测预警,定量评估秋风对水稻空壳率的影响,利用贵州省多年农业气象试验站水稻观测资料,采用多种统计分析方法对水稻空壳率与各气象影响因子进行相关分析,并建立空壳率与相关因子的关系模型。结果表明,抽穗前10天—抽穗后5天的平均气温对水稻的空壳率影响最大;不同时段,持续时间及水稻抽穗的不同阶段的气温对水稻空壳率的影响存在差异;阴雨天气导致水稻结实率下降。用负积温表征和评估秋风对水稻的影响优于常规秋风指数,通过计算秋风强度和水稻灾损率,建立了基于秋风指数和负积温表示的水稻灾损量气象模型,为贵州秋风的监测预警提供依据。

关键词: 毒饵法, 毒饵法

Abstract: In order to monitor and warn the disaster of low temperature in autumn, and assess the impact of the disaster on unfilled rice rate, the author conducted the study. Using many years observation data of rice in Guizhou Province, the author analyzed the correlation of unfilled rice rate and meteorologic elements by statistic methods. The results showed that: the average temperature in heading and flowering period impacted unfilled rice rate seriously, and temperature in different stages had different influence on rice. Rainy weather caused rice rate decrease. Negative accumulated temperature was better than usual index to represent intensity of low temperature in autumn. Meanwhile, in order to provide basis for monitoring and early warning of low temperature in autumn in Guizhou, meteorological model of rice yield loss also was established in this paper.