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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

The growth of production in the industrial countries seems to have been less rapid in the second quarter. It must be expected to slow down further under the impact of the measures taken in the United States to reduce the budgetary deficit. We still expect the rise in the combined national outputs of the industrial countries to be around 4½ per cent this year, but on present policies it may be no more than 3½ per cent in 1969 and a good deal less than this in the twelve months to mid-1969. Unemployment is still high by the standards of most recent years; its downward movement appears to have been checked again or even reversed in a number of European countries and its general tendency over the next twelve months is likely to be upward, particularly in the United States.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © 1968 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 16 Fortune, July 1968, pages 17-24.

note (1) page 17 See National Institute Economic Review No. 43, February 1968, page 54.

note (1) page 18 OECD, Economic Outlook, July 1968, pages 55-56.

note (2) page 18 OECD, Economic Outlook, July 1968, page 62.

note (1) page 19 See National Institute Economic Review No. 44, May 1968, pages 22-23.

note (1) page 26 Double counting appears to arise on assistance given to the United Kingdom even where this was not in the form of currency swaps. ‘The credits which the Bundesbank granted to the Bank of England direct with forward rate covering under swap transactions are the main reason for the fact that … the Bundesbank's foreign currency claims other than those expressed in US dollars rose by DM 1.4 billion to DM 1.5 billion from end-September 1967 to end-May 1968. Finally under the Basle Group Arrangement in order to support the British reserve position, the Bundesbank in the case of sterling withdrawals transferred dollar balances from the United States to the Bank for International Settlements, in other words it stepped up its dollar claims on debtors outside the United States.’ (Monthly Report of the Deutsche Bundesbank, May 1968, page 50.)

note (1) page 27 National Institute Economic Review No. 43, February 1968, pages 62-64.