Forecasting Technology Using for Dynamic Natural Rubber Production Models in Selected Asean Countries and World Market

The growth of rubber industries had been risen significantly in ASEAN economies particularly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Myanmar ever since the late 19th century. Despite of the forces from global market integration and international competitiveness, there are over 20 million families and smallholders in Southeast Asia are still depending on rubber cultivation as their basic income and livelihood. By taking these into consideration, the objectives of this study are (1) to develop the dynamics natural rubber (NR) production forecasting models with export prices in selected Asean countries and world market, and (2) to predict the future trends of NR production using the forecasting technology. With a total of 240 observations, the monthly data range from 1997 to 2016 will be utilized for future estimations. The period from January to December 2016 will be served as the baseline for future trends forecast. Based on the cointegration characteristics, the future trends from 2017 until 2030 will be predicted by using distributed lag model in line with vector error correction method (VECM). The empirical results show there is a significant positive relationship between NR export price and production in selected ASEAN economies. Evidently, the Malaysian and Myanmar NR production forecast exhibit increasing trends over the long-term. Conversely, NR production in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and World market display decreasing trends as compared with 2016. The overall outcomes signify the prediction of the future domestic demand, export and price stability of ASEAN NR production in the world market.