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Clinical prediction guide
Routine clinical variables predicted mortality in patients with heart failure and systolic dysfunction

https://doi.org/10.1136/ebm.9.5.154

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    Brophy JM, Dagenais GR, McSherry F, et al. A multivariate model for predicting mortality in patients with heart failure and systolic dysfunction. Am J Med 2004;116:300–4.
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 Q In patients with heart failure (HF) and depressed systolic function, can routine clinical variables be used to predict short term and long term mortality?

    Clinical impact ratings GP/FP/Primary care ★★★★★★☆ IM/Ambulatory care ★★★★★☆☆ Cardiology ★★★★★☆☆ Internal medicine ★★★★★☆☆

    METHODS

    Embedded ImageDesign:

    derivation and validation of a multivariate statistical model to predict mortality using data from the Digitalis Investigation Group (DIG) trial.

    Embedded ImageSetting:

    300 centres in North America.

    Embedded ImagePatients:

    6422 patients with HF who had a left ventricular ejection fraction ⩽45%, were in sinus rhythm, and were taking angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors. Exclusion criteria: age <21 years, serum creatinine concentration >3.0 mg/dl, unstable coronary syndromes, cor pulmonale, complex congenital heart disease, or recognisable non-cardiac …

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    Footnotes

    • For correspondence: Dr J Brophy, McGill University Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada. jbrophpo-box.mcgill.ca

    • Source of funding: not stated.