Original paper
Climate change and international trade can exacerbate the invasion risk of the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta around the globe
Li, Dexian; Li, Zixin; Wang, Xiaoxia; Wang, Li; Khoso, Abdul Ghaffar; Liu, Deguang
Entomologia Generalis Volume 43 Number 2 (2023), p. 315 - 323
published: May 25, 2023
published online: Mar 22, 2023
manuscript accepted: Feb 21, 2023
manuscript revision received: Feb 9, 2022
manuscript revision requested: Jul 15, 2022
manuscript received: May 19, 2022
DOI: 10.1127/entomologia/2023/1686
Open Access (paper may be downloaded free of charge)
Abstract
Climate change, together with the deepening of global economic integration, makes biological invasions an ever-increasing challenge. Red imported fire ant [Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)], a global invasive pest, can pose a huge threat to agricultural production, infrastructures and public health, but the impact of climate change on its potential global distribution is not well-understood. Based on diverged native and exotic populations, separate niche models were developed for this highly invasive pest to project its future invasion patterns around the globe under climate change. Optimized models project huge future expansion of distribution for S. invicta in many regions around the world under different climate change scenarios. Native and exotic populations will present relatively higher probability of success in Southeast Asia and Europe, respectively, showing that the origin of colonizing populations needs to be considered when evaluating their invasion potential. Some ports in Southeast Asia (e.g., Pulupandan, Sihanoukville, and Thilawa) will present high suitability for native populations of S. invicta, while exotic populations will have high suitability at ports along the Gulf of Venice (e.g., Monfalcone, Sistiana, and Grado) in Europe. Thus, both climate change and global trade may facilitate the invasion process of S. invicta, and the level of its invasion success for a particular region may depend on the origin of colonizing populations. Our study provides insightful information for implementing targeted surveillance and early response actions at high-risk ports in many countries to prevent or mitigate future invasions of S. invicta.
Keywords
Global warming • exotic pests • MaxEnt • species distribution model • Formicidae • phytosanitary