|
In order to reduce carbon emissions in the construction industry, it is crucial to study the factors that affect carbon emissions in this sector. Based on statistical yearbooks and the characteristics of carbon emissions in the construction industry, this study establishes a measurement method for national carbon emissions in the construction industry. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is utilized to calculate direct and indirect carbon emissions in the construction industry from 2010 to 2020. The study also explores and organizes the driving factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry. Based on the empirical research using LMDI decomposition, it is found that the total electricity consumption and carbon emission coefficient have a promoting effect on carbon emissions in the national construction industry. The effects of per unit area energy consumption and per unit electricity consumption on carbon emissions over a 10-year period are more promoting than inhibiting. Based on the LMDI decomposition results, the concept of "measuring carbon with electricity" is proposed to explore the relationship between annual electricity consumption and annual carbon emissions in the construction industry. This approach allows for the estimation of annual carbon emissions by knowing the annual electricity consumption in the construction industry. Three prediction models are compared to evaluate their effectiveness, and it is found that the Gaussian regression fitting model produces better results. According to the prediction results, it is projected that national carbon emissions in the construction industry will continue to rise over the next five years. Therefore, it is crucial to have sound national planning for the construction industry and to enhance awareness of low-carbon and environmental protection measures in order to achieve the goal of "dual carbon" reduction.
|
