The credit cycle and corporate strategy: challenges and solutions

This paper offers a practical overview of the U.S. credit cycle and the challenges it poses, along with a perspective on where we seem to be in the cycle in early 2023. Suggestions are then offered for how corporate executives can address cyclical challenges from a corporate strategy perspective.

The United States credit cycle was out into context by following the trend of Moody’s Baa corporate bond yields from January 1919 to November 2022. Under the Moody’s rating system, Baa is the lowest level of investment grade credit, and as such it possesses speculative characteristics that are sensitive to cyclical dynamics. Another reason for choosing Baa credit patterns for analysis is data availability: over 100-years of continuous Baa data is searchable at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The prior credit cycle wave of progressively lower inflation and interest rates began in 1982 and ended in 2020. The current credit cycle of wave of progressively higher inflation and interest rates will present strategic risks and opportunities that executives will increasingly have to deal with.

This is the first corporate strategy paper we are aware that practically addresses the credit cycle change. It is also the first paper we are aware that provides practical suggestions on how to address that change from a corporate strategy perspective.