Managerial sentiment and corporate risk-taking: evidence from Chinese listed companies’ annual reports

This paper aims to examine whether managerial sentiment, extracted from annual reports, is associated with corporate risk-taking in the context of Chinese companies. This study expands the vein of literature on overconfidence theory.

By leveraging textual analysis on Chinese listed companies’ annual reports, the authors construct firm-level managerial sentiment during 2007 and 2021 to examine how managerial sentiment influences corporate risk-taking after control for firm characteristics. Corporate risk-taking is denoted by corporate investment engagements: capital expenditures and net fixed asset investment.

Results show that incentives for corporate risk-taking are likely to increase with the positive managerial sentiment and decrease with the negative sentiment in companies’ annual reports. Positive managerial sentiment is associated with over-/under-investment and low/high investment efficiency. Further additional tests show that the managerial sentiment effect only holds during low economic uncertain years and samples of private-owned firms. Furthermore, the robust tests indicate that there is no endogenous issue between managerial sentiment and corporate risk-taking.

Annual report textual-based managerial sentiment may not perfectly reflect managers’ lower frequency sentiment (e.g. weekly, monthly and quarterly sentiment). Future studies could attempt to capture managers’ on-time sentiment by using media sources and corporate disclosures.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first research to provide insights into supervising managers’ corporate decisions by observing their textual information usage in corporate disclosure. Moreover, the approach of measuring managerial sentiment might be a solution to monitoring managerial class.

This paper contributes to the literature on accounting and finance studies, adding another piece of empirical evidence on content analysis by examining a unique language and institutional context (i.e. China). Besides, the paper notes that in line with the English version disclosure, based on Chinese semantic words, managerial sentiment in the Chinese-speaking world has magnitude on corporate decisions. The research provides insights into supervising managers’ corporate decisions by observing their textual information usage in corporate disclosure. Moreover, the approach to measuring managerial sentiment may be a practical solution to monitoring managerial class.