The impact of innovation orientation on strategic R&D amidst macroeconomic shocks – an event study approach

This research investigates the impact of strategic research and development (R&D) (one led by a firm’s innovation orientation) on stock market performance during the economic disruption caused by the 2016 demonetization of high-value currency notes in India. It shows how firms’ strategic focus on innovation and integrated R&D initiatives can help mitigate shareholders’ losses and protect market value during negative macroeconomic shocks.

We analyzed financial and administrative data from firms listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) 500 index and used the Fama French market model with appropriate instruments accounting for possible endogeneity to identify the impact. To ensure the reliability of our findings, we conducted robustness checks with alternate event windows, estimation methods, and variable measurements.

Strategic R&D plays a crucial role in building resilience against macroeconomic shocks. It effectively mitigated shareholders’ losses in the immediate aftermath of the shock, with an elasticity of abnormal returns of 7.65% on day zero, 13.1% during the first five days and 10.5% after the first fortnight. We also find that firms that are business-to-business (B2B), as well as those that are older and less leveraged, are better able to combat such a shock.

The study looked at one shock, namely demonetization. Future research is needed to demonstrate the generalizability of results during other macroeconomic shocks, like the COVID-19 pandemic. The study focuses on relatively near-term impacts, leaving the long-term value-creation effects of strategic R&D unexplored.

Innovation orientation acts as a structural enabler, allowing firms to make strategic R&D investments that mitigate losses during macroeconomic shocks. It explains that managers should avoid myopically managing R&D investments and align them with the firm’s innovation focus to enhance value creation.

While the currency demonetization was widely considered to be detrimental for firms as an unannounced negative monetary shock, our research shows that firms with high levels of strategic R&D were successfully able to counteract such a shock.

This is the first study to examine the short-term loss mitigation impact of firms’ focus on innovation and strategic R&D. It emphasizes the role of innovation-focused strategies during economic crises.