Adoption and forecasting of technology: modeling the dynamics of cloud adoption using a system approach

This paper aims to examine the dynamism of causal relationships among cloud computing (CC) adoption factors in the Indian context, considering the perspectives of both the cloud adopter and cloud provider.

The case-study method has been used to understand the dynamics among the factors. Using data from specific cases in India, causal loop diagrams (CLDs) have been developed. System dynamic modeling (SDM) and simulation are used to study the relationships and their effect on the adoption rate.

The results revealed that adoption of CC depends on various factors such as persuasion (time-saving, cost-saving and word of mouth) and constraint factors (security and financial loss). However, it is seen that the adoption rate is very sensitive to changes in adoption per contact and word of mouth. Further, the adopter firm has a quicker time to market, which gives an added advantage to the firm. Also, with CC services, a firm can fulfill its projects or clients' requirements with little to no upfront investment in information technology (IT) services.

Lack of security, standardization and undefined service-level agreements are a few pressing issues that make it difficult for firms to evaluate the performance and reliability of services. Hence, immediate attention is needed to make transparent policies on CC and its services, thereby building trust.

This is the first and only work that has tried to explore and empirically test the dynamics of critical factors while making an adoption decision, considering both the adopter and provider perspectives. This study shows the journey of a firm, starting from being a prospective adopter to an adopter and continuous user. The work also empirically tested how adopters of technology benefit from the technology.