The 2018–2019 UK residential dwellings clay shrinkage subsidence event

In the UK, responses to intense weather events regarding national and regional level perils include the support of a General Insurance policy at the address level as part of private residential and other insurance policies covering the key risks of flooding, subsidence and windstorm. In respect of the subsidence peril, dry summers can lead to many thousands of properties on shrinkable clay soils suffering differential downward movement as water is abstracted from the soil by vegetation. These events are forecast to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change, with costs for a dry event year of more than £500m to UK insurers. Assessing the character of these event years can inform government, local government, insurers and their agents as to the typical characteristics of an event year and its impacts. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the 2018 UK subsidence event year as it relates to trees and low rise buildings.

The research material is taken from claims that originated within the period commencing in the Summer of 2018, which in the UK was dry and with high levels of claim notification, and is from the private database of Property Risk Inspection Limited, one of the largest UK specialist subsidence claims handling businesses.

The data clearly illustrates the wide range of vegetative species causing or contributing to claims in the UK, their age ranges, sizes and conditions, management options and the range of land uses and statutory controls that exist in relation to title and other boundaries.

There have been various small-scale studies looking at individual cases of subsidence and the impacts of vegetation, but there have been no detailed investigations of large-scale claims-driven events such as the 2018 surge. The importance of this population-level investigation will only increase given the modelling for increased hot and dry summers over the coming decades.