Trade Impact of Crisis: A Tale of Three Episodes

Trade can be severely impacted by economic crisis whatever might have been the trigger. Protectionist tendencies are also normally on the rise during such times having further impact on trade and associated variables. In this chapter, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of economic crisis on international trade. Three episodes of crisis have been picked up for the same, the oil crisis of early 1970s, the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008, and the COVID-19 crisis of 2019. Each episode is triggered by different factors. Do the differing triggers ultimately lead to different impact on trade? This chapter first tries to answer this question at aggregate trade level and then across country groups and product groups. Interesting trends are observed. Across product groups, both agricultural and manufacturing goods exports were more impacted during the GFC, whereas for services exports, the impact was severe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across country groups, the high-income countries were more impacted during the first two episodes, whereas the less-developed countries (LDCs) were more impacted during the pandemic. Further, a gravity model estimation was attempted to empirically measure the effects of crisis for the world as a whole and for India and China separately. All country bilateral trades were significantly impacted by the three episodes. After controlling for the relevant factors for India and China, certain differences in impact are observed. China seems to be less impacted by destination country factors.