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A 20-year coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere variability mode in the North Atlantic in an AOGCM

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A Publisher's Erratum to this article was published on 09 April 2013

Abstract

In order to understand potential predictability of the ocean and climate at the decadal time scales, it is crucial to improve our understanding of internal variability at this time scale. Here, we describe a 20-year mode of variability found in the North Atlantic in a 1,000-year pre-industrial simulation of the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. This mode involves the propagation of near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, leading to anomalous sea-ice melting in the Nordic Seas, which then forces sea-level pressure anomalies through anomalous surface atmospheric temperatures. The wind stress associated to this atmospheric structure influences the strength of the East Greenland Current across the Denmark Strait, which, in turn, induces near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies of opposite sign at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. This starts the second half of the cycle after approximatively 10 years. The time scale of the cycle is thus essentially set by advection of tracers along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, and by the time needed for anomalous East Greenland Current to accumulate heat and freshwater anomalies at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) does not play a dominant role in the mode that is confined in the subpolar North Atlantic, but it also has a 20-year preferred timescale. This is due to the influence of the propagating salinity anomalies on the oceanic deep convection. The existence of this preferred timescale has important implications in terms of potential predictability of the North Atlantic climate in the model, although its realism remains questionable and is discussed.

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Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s 7th framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (THOR: “Thermohaline Overturning—at Risk”, 2008–2012) and was supported by the “Gestion des Impacts du Changement Climatique” Programme (GICC) under the EPIDOM project funded by MEDDTL (French Ministery of Ecology and sustained development). We also acknowledge financial support from the CNRS/INSU/LEFE/EVE french program through the Ti Ammo project. We are grateful to Claude Frankignoul, Guillaume Gastineau and Julie Deshayes for very interesting discussions concerning the results of this paper.

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  1. Institut Mediterrani d’Estudis Avancats, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Mallorca, Spain

    R. Escudier

  2. Laboratoire d’ocanographie et du climat: experimentation et approches numeriques, IPSL/UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, case 100, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France

    J. Mignot

  3. IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, CEA Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, France

    D. Swingedouw

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Escudier, R., Mignot, J. & Swingedouw, D. A 20-year coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere variability mode in the North Atlantic in an AOGCM. Clim Dyn 40, 619–636 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1402-4

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