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A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

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Notes

  1. The methodology to determine the weights of the indicators followed the principles and procedures of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty 1980). The AHP is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach, which has gained wide popularity in the scientific community.

  2. In Dar es Salaam—it was the sub-ward/mtaa level; comprising approx. 5–15,000 residents.

  3. The TWI threshold is calibrated through a GIS-based probabilistic procedure employing either the hydraulic profile calculated at the microscale (Jalayer et al. 2014b) or information available about the historical flooding extent (De Risi et al 2014).

  4. Results from case site 2 where 309 households were interviewed.

  5. Results from case site 2.

  6. National Adaptation Policy (NAPA).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1858, Frederiksberg C, Denmark

    Lise Byskov Herslund, Gertrud Jørgensen & Patrik Karlsson Nyed

  2. University of Naples Federico II and AMRA, Via Nuova Agnano, 11, 80125, Naples, Italy

    Fatemeh Jalayer

  3. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany

    Nathalie Jean-Baptiste & Sigrun Kabisch

  4. IHHS, Ardhi University, PO Box 35176, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    Wilbard Kombe

  5. Geography, School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Sarah Lindley

  6. Technical University of Munich, Arcisstraße 21, 80333, Munich, Germany

    Stephan Pauleit & Andreas Printz

  7. NIBR, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349, Oslo, Norway

    Trond Vedeld

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  1. Lise Byskov Herslund
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  2. Fatemeh Jalayer
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Herslund, L.B., Jalayer, F., Jean-Baptiste, N. et al. A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nat Hazards 82 (Suppl 2), 149–172 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1856-x

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