Abstract
Data collection using the life event calendar method is growing, but reliability is not well established. We examine test–retest reliability of monthly self-reports of criminal behavior collected using a life event calendar from a random sample of minimum and medium security prisoners. Tabular analysis indicates substantial agreement between self-reports of drug dealing, property, and violent crime during a baseline interview (test) and a follow-up (retest) approximately 3 weeks later. Hierarchical analysis reveals that criminal activity reported during the initial test is strongly associated with responses given in the retest, and that the relationship varies only by the lag in days between the initial interview and the retest. Analysis of validity reveals that self-reported incarceration history is strongly predictive of official incarceration history although we were unable to address whether subjects could correctly identify the months they were incarcerated. African Americans and older subjects provide more valid responses but in practical terms the differences in validity are not large.
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Notes
The life event calendar (LEC) method is alternatively referred to as the event-history calendar method, the icon calendar method, the timeline method, the timeline-follow back method, and the life-history calendar method.
The focus in this paper is monthly self-reports, but the LEC method is not defined by a particular calendar length. Rather, the calendar is a function of research questions and prior theory. Thus, calendars may appropriately be constructed to document changes occurring hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, or over multi-year periods across the life course.
Our protocol initially specified interviews with female prisoners. This part of our request was denied by the ODRC institutional review board (IRB) because of the large number of ongoing research projects being conducted in the Ohio prisons that house females.
ODRC’s decision about which institutions we could visit was based largely on how many research projects had been recently approved, and which institutions those projects were conducted in. The institutions we were granted access to had not fielded as many recent studies.
Confidentiality is protected by a Certificate of Confidentiality from the National Institutes of Health.
The retest was much shorter because it contained less than half the questions included in the test, with a focus on criminal behavior and other topics collected with the calendar.
We paired male and female interviewers together in the majority of interviews. Two out of eight primary interviewers are African American, and half are female. The remaining interviewers are White males. We also attempted to balance age when assigning interviewers.
Each subject’s responses were recorded simultaneously on a paper calendar that was kept in front of the subject for reference and on the electronic version of the calendar maintained by the second interviewer (the laptop was positioned so the subject could see the calendar screen).
We focus on whether subjects correctly specified the months in which they committed crimes. Out of necessity to reduce the length of the interview, we did not collect frequency data for each month crimes were reported. Rather, if subjects reported that they committed crime in any month a follow-up question asked subjects to report the frequency of offending in the typical month.
There is a substantial body of literature positing a relationship between the salience of a criminal incident and accuracy of recall. We attempted to model the three components of the criminal behavior scale independently as binary outcomes, but the HLM program was unable to compute robust standard errors for those models. Tabular results for each component are presented in “Appendix”, indicating minimal difference in reliability among the component items of the criminal behavior scale.
At level-1 we model: ηij = log(λ ij ), where λ ij is the event rate reflecting the number of self-reported crimes during the retest and ηijk is the log of the event rate. Note that while λ ij is constrained to be non-negative, log(λ ij ) can take on any value. The predicted log event rate can be converted to an event rate by generating λ ij = exponential{ηij}.
Subjects were not asked to provide the dates of incarceration in state prisons, thus precluding examination of the timing issue.
Arrest data maintained by ODRC (our data source) is less consistently recorded as a result of missing pre-sentence investigation (PSI) paperwork from the criminal history records of a significant proportion of cases. Collection and analysis of arrest data also requires significant resources due to the amount of time required to hand code official data from ODRC data bases into a file matching the 18 month calendar. We hope to have resources to collect and compare monthly self-reports of arrests with monthly official arrests in the future.
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Acknowledgments
We gratefully acknowledge research support from the Department of Sociology and especially thank Bob Kaufman, then Chair, for listening to our pleas for help, the Criminal Justice Research Center (CJRC), the Initiative in Population Research (IPR), and the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis (CURA) at The Ohio State University. We are thankful for important contributions from several graduate students including: Rachael Gossett, James Hein, Brianne Hillmer, Ross Kaufman, Anita Parker, Grace Sherman, Matthew Valasik, and Shawn Vest. We thank Julie Horney for graciously providing us with a computer assisted version of a previously used event calendar instrument which provided the starting point for this project. We thank the anonymous reviewers and the Editors for their comments which we think helped improve the paper. We also thank the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction, especially Gayle Bickle and the staff at the Madison, London, Southeastern, and Richland correctional institutions, for facilitating this research. Finally, data collection would not have been possible without the good will and professionalism shown by the prisoners who agreed to participate without compensation.
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Paul E. Bellair is principal investigator.
An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-011-9132-z
Appendix
Appendix
See Table 7.
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Sutton, J.E., Bellair, P.E., Kowalski, B.R. et al. Reliability and Validity of Prisoner Self-Reports Gathered Using the Life Event Calendar Method. J Quant Criminol 27, 151–171 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9101-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9101-y