Abstract
The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Tugai experts, S. Kouzmina, S. Treshkin, N. Mamutov, and H. Weisgerber for providing valuable insight into ecology and distribution of Tugai vegetation in the Amudarya delta and other areas. J. Berlekamp and S. Lautenbach assisted in all GIS-related aspects of tool development. Thanks to D.C. McKinney for support in the development of the AmuEPIC module and critical comments at all stages of the work. The first author is very grateful to M. Mesarovic for advice and support in conducting the research and to D. DeAngelis for sharing experiences of the ATLSS project in the Florida Everglades and critical comments on the manuscript. Comments of C. Pahl-Wostl and three anonymous reviewers significantly improved the manuscript. The work was funded by the INTAS project 00-1039 “Restoration and Management Options for Aquatic and Tugai Ecosystems in the Northern Amudarya delta,” a fellowship of the German Exchange Service (DAAD) to the first author and a grant of the Universitätsgesellschaft Osnabrück to M. Schlüter and N. Rüger for travel to Uzbekistan.
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Schlüter, M., Rüger, N., Savitsky, A.G. et al. TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta. Environmental Management 38, 638–653 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-005-0108-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-005-0108-3