Abstract
With the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), this paper investigates the sensitive areas in targeted observation for predicting the Kuroshio large meander (LM) path using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach. To identify the sensitive areas, the optimal initial errors (OIEs) featuring the largest nonlinear evolution in the LM prediction are first calculated; the resulting OIEs are localized mainly in the upper 2 500 m over the LM upstream region, and their spatial structure has certain similarities with that of the optimal triggering perturbation. Based on this spatial structure, the sensitive areas are successfully identified, located southeast of Kyushu in the region (29°–32°N, 131°–134°E). A series of sensitivity experiments indicate that both the positions and the spatial structure of initial errors have important effects on the LM prediction, verifying the validity of the sensitive areas. Then, the effect of targeted observation in the sensitive areas is evaluated through observing system simulation experiments. When targeted observation is implemented in the identified sensitive areas, the prediction errors are effectively reduced, and the prediction skill of the LM event is improved significantly. This provides scientific guidance for ocean observations related to enhancing the prediction skill of the LM event.
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Acknowledgements
The monthly climatology data of the World Ocean Atlas 2009 can be downloaded from www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA09/netcdf_data.html. The SSH data were obtained from satellite altimetry (AVISO), which is available at www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data.html. The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) was downloaded from apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/data/data.php. The calculation of this work was performed on Shuguang-6000. The authors appreciate the support of the National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen (NSCCSZ).
Funding
The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41906003 and 41906022; the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No. XDA20060502; the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No. B200201011; the Basic Research Projects of Key Scientific Research Projects Plan in Henan Higher Education Institutions under contract No. 20zx003.
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Liu, X., Wang, Q. & Mu, M. Identifying the sensitive areas in targeted observation for predicting the Kuroshio large meander path in a regional ocean model. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 41, 3–14 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-021-1838-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-021-1838-7