Abstract
Nitrogen oxide (NOx) contains two harmful air pollutants: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The reasonable prediction of China’s NOx emissions is of positive significance for the government to formulate environmental protection policies. To this end, a new grey prediction model with second-order differential equation is proposed in this paper, which has more reasonable model structure and better modeling performance than the traditional grey model. Secondly, according to the data characteristics of NOx emissions of China in recent years, a smoothing algorithm and weakening buffer operator are employed to process the original data to solve the rationality of the prediction results of the new model. Thirdly, the model for predicting China’s NOx emissions has been constructed by the new proposed model. The results show that the mean comprehensive error of the new model is only 0.0692%, and its performance is much better than that of several other mainstream grey prediction models. Finally, the new model is applied to China’s carbon dioxide prediction in the next 5 years, and the rationality of the prediction results is analyzed. Based on the prediction results, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
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Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available in China’s National Bureau of Statistics, repository http://www.stats.gov.cn.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the anonymous referees for their constructive comments that helped to improve the clarity and completeness of this manuscript. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72071023 and 71771033), Chongqing Education Commission Key Foundation of Scientific and Technological Research of China (Grant No. KJZD-K202000804)
Funding
Innovative Research Group Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China,72071023,Bo Zeng,Chongqing Municipality Key Research and Development Program of China,KJZD-K202000804,Bo Zeng
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Bo Zeng provided relevant suggestions on collected data and manuscript frame structure; Xiaozeng Xu built the model, processed the manuscript data, analyzed relevant results, wrote the manuscript, and was a major contributor in writing the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Xu, X., Zeng, B. Application of a novel second-order differential equation grey model to forecast NOx emissions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 24441–24453 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23662-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23662-w