Abstract
Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (<0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.
Résumé
Les régimes hydrologiques du Cerrados brésilien sont sensibles aux perturbations climatologiques et à l’intervention humaine. Le risque de dépassement de niveaux piézomètriques critiques durant des périodes longues peut être évalué en appliquant des méthodes stochastiques modélisant la relation niveaux piézomètriques - facteurs dynamiques tels précipitations et évapotranspiration. Dans cette étude, un modèle source aléatoire dénommé PIRFICT est utilisé pour établir la relation dynamique entre la hauteur de nappe et le bilan excédent/déficit des précipitations, sur un bassin versant du Cerrados brésilien doté d’un plan de gestion de nappe. Des limites critiques ont été inscrites sur le calendrier agricole du Cerrados correspondant à fin de la saison pluvieuse, quand des niveaux de nappe extrêmement bas (hauteur < 0.5 m) peuvent créer un risque pour l’agriculture et pour les engins agricoles. En simulant des chroniques temporelles, on évalue les probabilités de franchir des seuils critiques pendant une période continue (e.g. 10 jours). Ces probabilités ont été interpolées par krigeage en incorporant des données numériques modélisant le bassin versant. La carte résultante réduit l’incertitude du modèle de transfert. Trois zones ont été définies comme présentant un risque potentiel en fin de saison pluvieuse. Ces zones méritent une attention particulière concernant la gestion de l’eau et les programmes agricoles.
Resumen
Los regimenes de agua en los Cerrados Brasileños son sensibles a las perturbaciones climáticas y a la intervención humana. El riesgo de que los niveles freáticos críticos sean excedidos a través de largos períodos de tiempo pueden ser estimados por la aplicación de métodos estocásticos en la modelación de la relación dinámica entre niveles de agua y las forzantes tales como la precipitación y evapotranspiración. En este estudio se aplica un modelo de función de transferencia de ruido, el llamado modelo PIRFICT, para estimar la relación dinámica entre la profundidad del nivel freático y el exceso / déficit de agua en una cuenca con un esquema de monitoreo de aguas subterráneas en los Cerrados brasileños. Los límites críticos fueron definidos para un período en el calendario agrícola de los Cerrados, el fin de la estación lluviosa, cuando niveles extremamente someros (<0.5-m de profundidad) puede presentar un riesgo a la salud de las plantas y a las maquinarias antes de la cosecha. Se describe mediante modelos de simulación de series de tiempo, el riesgo de excedencia del umbral crítico durante un período continuo de tiempo (por ejemplo 10 días) utilizando niveles de probabilidad. Estas probabilidades simuladas fueron interpoladas espacialmente usando el kriging universal, incorporando información relacionada con la cuenca de drenaje a partir de un modelo digital de elevación. El mapa resultante redujo la incertidumbre del modelo. Se definieron tres áreas, las que presentaban riesgos potenciales en el fin de la estación lluviosa. Estas áreas merecen atención con respecto a la gestión del agua y a la planificación del uso de la tierra.
摘要
巴西Cerrados地区地下水动态对气候变化和人类活动应敏感。评价长期开采至超越临界地下水位的风险可以采用随机学方法, 模拟地下水位与其驱动力 (如降水和蒸发) 之间的动态关系。本文采用传递函数模型, 称为PIRFICT 模型, 根据巴西Cerrados地区地下水位动态监测资料, 利用模型计算了分水岭的地下水位埋深与降水盈余/亏损之间的关系。临界极限被定义为在Cerrados地区农业日历的一段时间内, 雨季末, 浅层地下水位极值 (<0.5 m深) 会对收获前植物健康和机械操作造成风险。通过时间序列模拟, 一段连续时间 (比如10天) 内的可能水位被描述为超越临界值的风险水位。结合相关的流域数字高程模型的信息, 对模拟得到的可能值采用通用的克里格 (kriging) 方法进行空间插值。由此得到的地图降低了模型不确定性。三个地区被确定为雨季末的潜在风险区。在进行水资源管理和土地利用规划时, 这些地区应受到关注。
Samenvatting
Waterregimes in de Braziliaanse cerrado’s worden beïnvloed door klimatologische variaties en menselijke ingrepen. Het risico dat kritische grondwaterstanden langdurig worden overschreden kan worden geschat met stochastische methoden, gebruik makend van modellen voor de dynamische relatie tussen grondwaterstanden en drijvende krachten zoals neerslag en verdamping. In deze studie werd het zogenoemd PIRFICT-model (een transfer-ruismodel voor het continue domein) toegepast om de dynamische relatie tussen grondwaterstand en neerslagoverschot en –tekort te beschrijven op basis van gegevens die zijn verzameld in een monitoringnetwerk in de Braziliaanse cerrado’s. Kritische grenzen werden gedefinieerd voor een periode in de landbouwkalender van de cerrado’s, namelijk het einde van het regenseizoen, wanneer extreem ondiepe grondwaterstanden (< 0.5 m diepte) voorafgaand aan de oogst een risico kunnen vormen voor de conditie van gewassen en voor gebruik van machines. Modelsimulaties werden uitgevoerd om de kans te kunnen schatten dat kritische grenzen werden overschreden gedurende aaneengesloten perioden (bijvoorbeeld 10 dagen). Deze kansen werden ruimtelijk geïnterpoleerd met behulp van universal kriging, waarbij hulpinformatie over het stroomgebied werd gebruikt die was afgeleid van een digitaal terreinmodel. De kaarten met kansen geven drie gebieden aan waar potentieel risico’s van ondiepe grondwaterstanden zijn aan het eind van het regenseizoen. Deze gebieden verdienen aandacht bij waterbeheer en landgebruiksplanning.
Resumo
Os regimes hidrológicos nos Cerrados Brasileiros são sensíveis às perturbações climáticas e intervenções humanas. O risco de ultrapassar os níveis freáticos críticos durante longos períodos de tempo pode ser estimado aplicando métodos estocásticos para modelar a relação dinâmica entre os níveis freáticos e os factores perturbadores como a precipitação e a evapotranspiração. Neste estudo, o modelo de função de transferência-ruído, designado modelo PIRFICT, é aplicado para estimar a relação dinâmica entre a profundidade do nível freático e o excesso/deficit de precipitação numa bacia hidrográfica com um esquema de monitorização da água subterrânea nos Cerrados Brasileiros. Foram definidos limites críticos para um período do calendário agrícola de Cerrados, o fim da estação húmida, quando os níveis extremamente superficiais (profundidade <0.5-m) podem pôr em risco a saúde das plantas e os equipamentos antes da colheita. Ao simular modelos de séries temporais, o risco de ultrapassar os limiares críticos durante um período de tempo contínuo (por exemplo 10 dias) é descrito através de níveis de probabilidade. As probabilidades simuladas foram interpoladas espacialmente usando a krigagem universal, incorporando informação relacionada com a bacia de drenagem a partir de um modelo digital de terreno. O mapa resultante diminuiu as incertezas do modelo. Foram definidas três áreas por apresentarem risco potencial no final da estação húmida. Estas áreas merecem atenção do ponto de vista da gestão da água e do planeamento do uso do solo.
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Acknowledgements
The first author is grateful to CAPES Foundation/Brazil (Foundation for the Coordination of Higher Education and Graduating Training) and to WIMEK (Wageningen Institute for Environment and Climate Research) for their financial support during his studies at ALTERRA, Wageningen, The Netherlands. The authors are also grateful to EMBRAPA/Cerrados (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation) and UnB/IG (University of Brasília) for sharing this database (PRODETAB - Agricultural Technology Development Project for Brazil).
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Manzione, R.L., Knotters, M., Heuvelink, G.B.M. et al. Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados. Hydrogeol J 18, 1927–1937 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-010-0654-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-010-0654-5