The impact of land reform on the status of large carnivores in Zimbabwe

Large carnivores are decreasing in number due to growing pressure from an expanding human population. It is increasingly recognised that state-protected conservation areas are unlikely to be sufficient to protect viable populations of large carnivores, and that private land will be central to conservation efforts. In 2000, a fast-track land reform programme (FTLRP) was initiated in Zimbabwe, ostensibly to redress the racial imbalance in land ownership, but which also had the potential to break up large areas of carnivore habitat on private land. To date, research has focused on the impact of the FTLRP process on the different human communities, while impacts on wildlife have been overlooked. Here we provide the first systematic assessment of the impact of the FTLRP on the status of large carnivores. Spoor counts were conducted across private, resettled and communal land use types in order to estimate the abundance of large carnivores, and to determine how this had been affected by land reform. The density of carnivore spoor differed significantly between land use types, and was lower on resettlement land than on private land, suggesting that the resettlement process has resulted in a substantial decline in carnivore abundance. Habitat loss and high levels of poaching in and around resettlement areas are the most likely causes. The FTLRP resulted in the large-scale conversion of land that was used sustainably and productively for wildlife into unsustainable, unproductive agricultural land uses. We recommended that models of land reform should consider the type of land available, that existing expertise in land management should be retained where possible, and that resettlement programmes should be carefully planned in order to minimise the impacts on wildlife and on people.


Introduction
The importance of private land to wildlife conservation is becoming increasingly clear (Bond et al., 2004). Species such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) were thought to depend heavily on private land as they are out competed in protected areas by larger carnivores (Durant, 1998), for example 80% of cheetahs in Zimbabwe occurred on private land (Stuart & Wilson, 1988). Since 2000, however, most private land in Zimbabwe has been rapidly resettled under the fast-track land reform programme (FTLRP), resulting in large scale settlement of private land (Scoones et al., 2010), a process which has huge potential to impact the population of large carnivores. This supplementary information considers the impact of fast-track land reform on the population trends of large carnivores in Zimbabwe through extrapolating our findings from Savé Valley Conservancy (SVC) (Williams et al. (in review) to a national scale, based on the assumption that the trends observed following resettlement at SVC are representative across the country.
Large carnivores were recorded at much greater densities in the private land use type (LUT) than the resettlement or communal LUTs in south east Zimbabwe (Williams et al., in review). Cheetah, lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), brown hyaena (Parahyaena brunnea) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) were present only in the private LUT, where they occurred at similar densities to protected areas (Williams et al., in review). Spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) was the only species to occur in the resettlement LUT, but their density was 7.4 times greater in the private LUT than the resettlement LUT (Williams et al., in review). No large carnivore sign were recorded in the communal LUT. The study site constituted approximately 10.3% of the remaining private land in Zimbabwe, so it is reasonable to extrapolate these findings to a national scale.

Methods
The impact of the FTLRP on carnivore population sizes on private land at a national level across Zimbabwe was estimated using the following linear model: Where P 2008 and P previous represent the 2008 and previous (prior to resettlement in 2000) population sizes of each study species on private land in Zimbabwe respectively.
A resettled represents the proportion of private land that has been resettled between 2000 and 2008, while A remaining represents the proportion of private land remaining in 2008. C remaining represents ratio of the density carnivores that that occur on resettlement land to the density of carnivores that occur on private land.
Estimates of carnivore population size on private land and in total in Zimbabwe before 2000 were taken from the literature where available. Populations on private land were assumed to have remained stable within each LUT between 2000 and 2008.
Estimates of brown hyaena abundance in the literature were not broken down by land use type, and no estimates were available for the proportion of the population that was thought to occur on private land. For this species the number of individuals on private land was estimated by multiplying the total estimate by the proportion of the species range in Zimbabwe (excluding communal land) that was composed of private land, which was calculated by digitizing a map of land use type (Surveyor-General, 1998) using QGIS 2.8.2 (QGIS Development Team, 2015).

Results
The estimated total population size of large carnivores in Zimbabwe after the FTLRP differed significantly from population size before the FTLRP (Wilcoxon matched pairs: Z = 0.000, df = 5, P = 0.028; Table 1). The density of each study species was lower after the FTLRP than before. The most dramatic decline was calculated for cheetahs, which were estimated to have declined by approximately 70%. Steep declines were also estimated for leopards (58%-69%) and brown hyaenas (47%) as a result of the FTLRP. Wild dogs and spotted hyaenas displayed more modest declines (29% and 11% respectively), while lion are estimated to have declined by only 2%. Across all species the mean change in population size was a 37% decline (when using average cheetah and leopard maximum and minimum estimates).

Discussion
When extrapolated to a national scale, these data suggest that changes in land use associated with the FTLRP resulted in a decline in the population size of each large carnivore species between 2000 and 2008. The largest impact of resettlement was on species that used to have large proportions of their populations occurring on private land, such as cheetahs. The estimated 70% decline of the cheetah population size in Zimbabwe over eight years is a much steeper decline than the suspected 30% decline in the global cheetah population between 1992 and 2010 (Durant et al., 2008). Leopards, brown hyaenas and wild dogs also had substantial populations on private land, and their numbers were estimated to have declined by 29-69%. The relatively moderate 11% decline for spotted hyaena and 2% for lion can be explained by the fact that private land supported a much smaller proportion of their national population.
It is suggested that further research is conducted at other sites to determine if these findings are representative of population trends of large carnivores across Zimbabwe. Further studies in other countries undergoing land reform programmes would also help to determine if these trends are representative internationally.  (Myers, 1975) 80% occurred on private land (Stuart & Wilson, 1988); d (Myers, 1975); e (Davison, 1999); f (White, 1996); g Calculated by subtracting 1,579 animals on private land (White, 1996) from a total of 2,000 animals (Wilson, 1984); h Wilson (1984); i (Martin & de Meulenaer, 1988), assuming that all unmodified land is made up of state-protected areas and private land and that all modified land is communal land; j See Table 2 for details of how this was calculated; k (Woodroffe, McNutt & Mills, 2004), assuming that all wild dogs occurring outside protected areas were on private land; l (Woodroffe, McNutt & Mills, 2004); m (Mills & Hofer, 1998), assuming that the brown hyaenas in Zimbabwe are absent from communal land (Table 3) but otherwise occur at an equal density throughout their range. After excluding communal land, private land makes up 54% of remaining brown hyaena range in Zimbabwe; n (Mills & Hofer, 1998).  (Bauer & Van Der Merwe, 2004). For communal used estimates of (Bauer & Van Der Merwe, 2004) were subtracted from estimates of (Chardonnet, 2002 (Davidson & Loveridge, 2006). At least 1,000 lions listed in (Wilson, 1997 (Pole, 2000) (0.24/100km 2 ) for Savé Valley Conservancy (3,440 km 2 ) also applies to Chiredzi River Conservancy (800km 2 (du Toit, 2004)) and Malilangwe (400 km 2 , (Jacquier & Woodfine, 2007)