Explaining Recent Army and Navy Minority Recruiting Trends

B lack representation among high-quality Army recruits has changed over time, with the black share of gross contracts falling 8.3 percentage points between fi scal years (FYs) 2000 and 2004, then increasing 1.2 percentage points between 2004 and 2007. (A recruit is deemed high-quality if he or she has a high school diploma and scores above average on the Armed Forces Qualifi cation Test.) Black representation among Navy recruits has been generally stable. In contrast, Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits increased in both the Army (3.3 percentage points) between FYs 2000 and 2003 and in the Navy (5.3 percentage points) between FYs 2002 and 2005. Th ese disparate trends suggest that black and Hispanic youths’ enlistment decisions respond diff erently to resources, external opportunities, and other factors. A team of RAND researchers identifi ed factors correlated with trends in black and Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits in the Army and Navy. Th e researchers also suggested policies likely to be most eff ective in increasing high-quality enlistments among black, Hispanic, and white youth.


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Explaining Recent Army and Navy Minority Recruiting Trends B lack representation among high-quality Army recruits has changed over time, with the black share of gross contracts falling 8.3 percentage points between fi scal years (FYs) 2000 and 2004, then increasing 1.2 percentage points between 2004 and 2007.(A recruit is deemed high-quality if he or she has a high school diploma and scores above average on the Armed Forces Qualifi cation Test.)Black representation among Navy recruits has been generally stable.In contrast, Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits increased in both the Army (3.3 percentage points) between FYs 2000 and 2003 and in the Navy (5.3 percentage points) between FYs 2002 and 2005.Th ese disparate trends suggest that black and Hispanic youths' enlistment decisions respond diff erently to resources, external opportunities, and other factors.
A team of RAND researchers identifi ed factors correlated with trends in black and Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits in the Army and Navy.Th e researchers also suggested policies likely to be most eff ective in increasing high-quality enlistments among black, Hispanic, and white youth.
Th e military relies on many resources to recruit youths, including enlistment bonuses, educational benefi ts (such as the Montgomery GI Bill), military pay, and recruiters.Th e researchers estimated enlistment models by race and ethnicity and identifi ed several patterns: • In the Army, black high-quality enlistments are more responsive to enlistment bonuses and less responsive to military pay, compared with high-quality enlistments of other groups.• In the Army, Hispanic high-quality enlistments are highly responsive to military pay, Army educational benefi ts, and recruiters.

Research Brief
• In the Navy, both black and Hispanic highquality enlistments are responsive to recruiters, while the estimated eff ects of bonuses, military pay, and educational benefi ts are not statistically diff erent from zero.• Finally, enlistments respond diff erently to resources in the Army versus in the Navy.
In general, Navy responsiveness to resources is lower, in percentage terms, than Army responsiveness.

What Accounts for the Recruiting Trends by Group?
In addition to the above-mentioned recruiting factors, the researchers identifi ed economic and demographic factors (e.g., the unemployment rate and noncitizen population), eligibility factors (e.g., obesity rate and crime rate), and political factors (e.g., the war in Iraq and the presidential approval rate) that help explain high-quality minority enlistment trends.

Policy Implications
Because potential black and Hispanic recruits respond diff erently to recruiting resources, the military might eff ectively target resources to specifi c groups in each service, and even across services.However, such an approach may run counter to notions of equity and fairness-that is, the services might be reluctant to target resources based on race and ethnicity.Still, as policy allocation decisions are made, the services should recognize that these decisions will aff ect not only the quantity of high-quality enlistments but also their distribution across groups, and that some policies could alter minority representation.Th e analysis also suggests the possibility of targeting resources across services by group, given the diff erential responses of diff erent groups across services.Because researchers did not estimate joint models of Army and Navy enlistments, the study does not address the question of resource allocation across services; however, such analysis should be explored in future research.■ Almost two-thirds of the decrease in black representation refl ects a large negative eff ect associated with the Iraq war and the success of the Army in recruiting high-quality Hispanic and white youth.Th e Iraq war was associated with a negative eff ect for all groups, but the eff ect was largest for blacks-45 percent versus 21 percent for whites and Hispanics-over the data period.Blacks were less sensitive than other groups to the large increases in regular military compensation relative to civilian pay that occurred over this period.Th us, part of the decline in black representation arose from the success of the Army in increasing Hispanic and white enlistments through increases in military pay, which increased market share of these latter groups.
For the Army, increases in Montgomery GI Bill benefi t levels explain about one-third of the 3.3 percentage point increase in Hispanic high-quality enlistments.Increases in relative military pay, as well as the stronger responsiveness of Hispanic versus black youth to pay increases, explain almost one-quarter of the increase in Hispanic representation over this period.Th us, resource changes have been important in explaining improvements in Hispanic representation in the Army in recent years.Th e estimated models are able to explain much of the recent changes in Army representation.
For the Navy, Hispanic representation among highquality recruits has also increased (not shown), rising by 5.3 percentage points between 2002 and 2005.Almost all this increase-5 percentage points-is attributable to a positive estimated association between the Iraq war and Hispanic enlistments.For the Navy, the Iraq war is associated with a larger increase in Hispanic than black enlistments and a decrease in white enlistments.Th e Hispanic share of recruits rose dramatically in the Navy as the war progressed.Th e precise explanation for this fi nding remains unclear, but one possibility is that minority youth who wanted to serve in the military and who might have chosen the Army prior to the Iraq war chose the Navy instead.
This research brief describes work done for the RAND National Defense Research Institute documented in Recruiting Minorities: What Explains Recent Trends in the Army and Navy?, by Beth J. Asch, Paul Heaton, and Bogdan Savych, MG-861-OSD, 2009, 118 pp., $24.00, ISBN: 978-0-8330-4717-5 (available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG861/).This research brief was written by Paul Steinberg.The RAND Corporation is a nonprofi t research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.RAND's publications do not necessarily refl ect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.R ® is a registered trademark.RAND Offi ces Santa Monica, CA • Washington, DC • Pittsburgh, PA • New Orleans, LA/Jackson, MS • Boston, MA • Doha, QA • Cambridge, UK • Brussels, BE decrease in black representation and the 3.3 percentage point increase in Hispanic representation noted at the outset.Th e table shows both factors contributing to the trend and those working against it.

Abstract Between 2000 and 2007, the representation of blacks among high-quality Army recruits declined, while in the Navy, black representa- tion remained stable; the representation of Hispanics among high-quality recruits in both the Army and Navy grew during this period. RAND researchers identifi ed factors that explain these recruiting trends and found that potential black and Hispanic recruits respond differently to recruiting resources and that these differences, along with economic and demographic factors, factors related to eligibil- ity, and political factors, explain much of the changes.
Th e table identifi es factors that explain recruiting trends over time in the Army: specifi cally, the 8.3 percentage point

Factors Explaining Recent Recruiting Trends Among Blacks and Hispanics in the Army
NOTE:Values may not sum because of rounding.